Impacts of energy security

Energy Pathways
1. Trends
  1. Significant increase in exported oil and gas since 1990.
  2. Main producers are the Middle East, Africa and the former Soviet Union
  3. In 2006, the Middle East exported around 1 billion tonnes of oil
  4. Consumers include Europe, Asia and the Asia-Pacific region
2. Oil
  1. Russia supplies some oil to China but the majority is consumed by Europe - 6,726 barrels per day (2007)
  2. Oil flows from West Africa, Europe, Canada and South America to the USA
  3. Around 15,000 barrels are exported every day from the Middle East to consumers like Japan, China and European nations
3. Gas
  1. Local and regional pipelines
  2. Gas may be liquefied then transported in tankers in the future due to political tensions over pipeline
  3. East Siberian Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline - Russian gas controlled by Gazprom exported to China and Japan
  4. Nabucco pipeline (planned) - gas bridge from Turkey to Austria, linking Middle Eastern producers and the Caspian region to European markets
4. Coal
  1. Likely to become more significant in the future as supplies appear less threatened
  2. USA has begun exporting coal and has set up links with China
  3. Huge environmental concerns
Pathway complexity and risk
1. Political tensions
  1. 2008 oil price rises due to Iraq threatening to attack Iran
  2. 2006 and 2008 Ukraine and Russia disputes meant that supplies were cut off from Western Europe
2. Many nations developed national and international energy policies due to the 1973 and 1980s oil crises
3. UK concerns over energy supplies:
  1. Unprecedented growth in energy demand globally - by 2030, China's oil demand will have decreased by 164% on 2004
  2. Speculation over future markets has driven prices higher
  3. Infrastructure transporting the energy is at risk from terrorism, political rivalries and general wear and tear
  4. Energy markets don't always behave as expected - recent oil price rises due to strikes in Nigeria and elections in Venezuela but the Iran-Iraq war had little impact
Players
1. OPEC
  1. 12 members
  2. Protects the interests of members by setting quotas to stabilise oil prices
  3. Adapts production to meet demand
  4. Very significant as members control 66% of the world's reserves
  5. OPEC has weakened due to producers like Russia, Mexico and Norway refusing to join
2. Non OPEC governments in oil rich nations
  1. Influence is increasing
  2. Russia totally controls foreign TNCs
  3. Some are corrupt and badly influence oil developments
  4. Some lack the expertise to handle energy resources
  5. Governments can force TNCs to share developments with them - BP and Shell in Siberia
3. State owned oil companies
  1. Companies fund political parties to exert influence - Exxon Mobil was ranked 2nd in the top 20 oil companies in 2005 and lobbied the US government to access federal lands
  2. 8 out of the top 20 companies are state owned
  3. Some companies are driven by shareholders like Gazprom, where Russia has 52% ownership
  4. Decide where TNCs can invest and spearhead exploration and production
4. TNCs
  1. Not owned by the state - BP, Royal Dutch Shell
  2. Multinational with diverse involvement
5. Consumers
  1. More influential in developed nations
  2. 7 billion decision makers
  3. Can pick green options or organise anti nuclear protests
6. Environmentalists
  1. Often environmental costs vs economic gain
  2. Different range of campaigning scales - Greenpeace - locals
  3. Campaigns becoming more significant and professional
7. Scientists
  1. Develop new technologies to influence exploration e.g. nanotechnologies
  2. Not powerful in the industry but do have crucial roles

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Impacts of energy security

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