- Income is either or saved. → Savings are invested.

- The investments constitute a .
The composition of a portfolio depends on investment goals.
Not all assets are appropriate for all financial goals.

- Factors affecting investment decision
(1) The of the investor
(2) The involved
(3) The that will be imposed on any gain
(4) Knowledge of investment .

Factors affecting investment decision
(1) The goals of the investor: Without a , a portfolio is like a
boat without a rudder. Some objective must guide the composition
of the portfolio.
- Possible investment goals
1) Funds to meet
2) Funds to finance education expenses
3) Funds to make a specified purchase (e.g., a home)
4) Funds for

(2) The risks involved: Willingness to bear plays an important
role in constructing the portfolio. Some individuals are more able to
bear risk.
→ Investors who are more willing to accept risk may construct
portfolios with assets involving greater risk that may earn
returns.

(3) The taxes that will be imposed on any gain: Return on
investments can be taxable or not depending on type of assets.
- Income such as interest and realized capital gains are taxed.
- Many states levy a tax on an individual’s .
Such taxes and the desire to reduce them affect the composition of
each investor’s portfolio.

(4) Knowledge of investment alternatives
- Securities, commodities, or real estate?
- Stocks or bonds?
- Original securities or derivatives?
- Traditional trading or short selling?
- Corporate bond or municipal bond?
- Convertible bond or straight bond?
→ The more you know, the more appropriate you have.

Preliminary Definitions

- Investment (in ): The purchase of plant, equipment, or
.
- Investment (in lay terms): Acquisition of an such as a stock or
a bond.

- Secondary market: A market for buying and selling previously
issued securities.
- Primary market: The sale of securities.

- During the course, purchase of an asset for the purpose of storing
value (and, it is hoped, increasing that value over time) will be called
an investment, even if in the aggregate there is only a transfer of
ownership from a seller to a buyer.

- Value: What something is ; the present value of future benefits.

- Valuation: The process of determining the current of an asset.

- Return: The sum of income plus capital earned on an
investment in an asset, where income means the flow of money or its
equivalent produced by an asset (e.g. dividends and interest), and
capital gain is an increase in the value of a capital asset, such as a
stock.

- Rate of return: The annual percentage return on an
investment.

- Risk: The possibility of ; the uncertainty of future returns.

Efficient Market Hypothesis

Financial markets tend to be efficient.
: New about future cash flows for an asset → the market
rapidly adjusts the asset’s price.

- Efficient financial market implies that a security’s current price
embodies all the information concerning the potential
return and risk associated with the particular asset.

- Financial markets are efficient because:
(1) exists among investors;
(2) Participants may readily enter and financial markets, and
(3) Information is readily available.

- Investors (or at least the vast majority of investors) cannot expect on
average to beat the market .

- An individual can earn large returns on particular assets. However,
the concept of efficient markets implies that this investor will not
consistently select those individual securities that earn abnormally
large returns.

- Depending on your belief in EMH, you can choose passive or
(aggressive) investment strategy.

* Finally, an investment decision is to choose a portfolio while
considering (1) the tradeoff relation between risk & return, and (2)
macroeconomic environment.

Gross domestic product (GDP): Total value of all goods
produced with domestic factors of production
GDP is the summation of expenditures:

GDP = C + I + G + E

where
C: personal consumption
I: gross private domestic investment
G: government spending
E: net exports

GDP is a leading indicator of macroeconomic environment.

Recession: A period of rising and declining national
output

- Recession periods are determined by NBER (National Bureau of
Economic Research)

Recession in late 2000s
- Initiated by sub-prime mortgage crisis
- Bank failures lead to liquidity and solvency crisis.
- Sharp decline in stock prices
- Dow Jones Industrial average sank to below 6,500 in 2009

Consumer confidence
: measured by Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the Consumer
Sentiment Index (CSI). Both the CCI and the CSI provide indicators
of consumer attitudes by focusing on
(1) consumer perceptions of business conditions,
(2) consumer perceptions of their condition, and
(3) consumer willingness to purchase durables, such as automobiles, homes, and other large dollar-cost items.

- An increase in confidence forecasts that consumers will increase
spending, which leads to economic .
- A decline in consumer confidence forecasts a reduction in the level
of economic activity.

Inflation: measured by CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI
(Producer Price Index)

- Consumer Price Index can be found through the Bureau of Labor
Statistics home site.
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/

- While aggregate prices are measured by an index, the rate of
inflation is measured by changes in the index.
: If the CPI rises from 100 to 105.6 during the year, the annual rate
of inflation is 5.6 percent.

- Inflation decreases purchasing power, thus amount of

The Federal Reserve (Fed): The nation's central
- Purpose: to control the supply of money in order to achieve
1) stable prices, 2) full employment, and 3) economic growth

* Monetary policy by Fed
1) The reserve requirement: changing commercial banks' reserves
2) The federal funds rate: changing the rate banks charge each other
for borrowing reserves (Fed sets a target federal funds rate.)
3) Open market operations: Fed buying and selling federal
government securities by order of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee).

- Monetary Expansion
: To expand the money supply, the Fed government securities.
→ The purchases reduce interest rates.

- Monetary Contraction
: To contract the money supply, the Fed government securities.
→ The sales increase interest rates.

- A change in interest rates is transferred to stock prices through its
1) Impact on the required rate of
2) Impact on earnings

Fiscal policy of the federal government
1) taxation
2) spending
3) debt management

- Deficit spending: Government spending exceeds .
Sources of funds to finance the deficit:
commercial banks
non-bank public
Federal Reserve

- Surplus: Government revenues exceed .
Question of how to use any surplus

Basics of Securities Markets

Corporations can be private or

- A private corporation has a number of owners and there is
no organized market for its shares
- A public corporation has many and its shares trade on an
organized market, called a stock market (Ex: NYSE, NASDAQ)

Primary VS secondary markets
- The primary market refers to a corporation issuing new and
selling them to investors (i.e. IPO: Initial Public Offering)
- After the initial transaction between corporation and investors, the
shares continue to trade in a market between investors
without the involvement of the corporation. NYSE and NASDAQ are
all secondary markets.

Mechanism of physical stock markets (Ex: NYSE)

(1) Market makers (dealers, specialists) match buyers and .
: They post two prices for their own accounts.
- Bid price: the price market makers are willing to the stock at
- Ask price: the price market makers are willing to the stock at
→ A customer can always buy or sell stocks at the market, if they can
trade at bid-price (when buying) or ask-price (when selling)

(2) Large investment banks and brokerages buy trading
which entitle them to access the floor and trade on NYSE.
Ex) A license holder can go to IBM’s trading post, and directly sell
IBM shares to the highest bidder or buy shares at the lowest offered
price. → It is an market.

Mechanism of Over-the-Counter stock markets (Ex: NASDAQ)

(1) OTC stock market: a collection of dealers or market makers
connected by networks and telephones

* NYSE has only market maker per each stock. On NASDAQ,
stocks can and do have market makers who compete with
each other.

(2) Since investors do not directly interact to set the prices, OTC
markets are markets.

Listing standards: Outlines of the a company must meet
to be traded on the exchange
* The NYSE’s listing standards are more stringent than those of
.
(http://venturelawcorp.com/nyse-mkt-listing-requirements/)

- Third market: Over-the- market for securities listed on an
exchange.
: Large shares (i.e. 10,000 shares or more) are traded in third markets.
These large shares are called “.” (usually traded by institutional
investors)

- Penny stocks on sheets are also traded in OTC markets.
(transactions are usually less than $1 million per day.)

- A financial analyst (or securities analyst or investment analyst) is an
individual who analyzes financial statements, interviews corporate
management, and uses other sources of information to construct
earnings and buy- or sell-recommendations for individual
securities.

“Buy-side” analyst: works for a non-brokerage firm that manages
mutual funds, pension plans, or trust services for corporate clients or
individual investors. They develop recommendations for possible
by their employers.

“Sell-side” analyst: employed by a brokerage firm, and gives the
recommendations to investors. The purpose of a sell-side analyst’s
reports is to generate .

The Mechanics of Investing in Securities

Broker: An agent who handles buy and sell orders for an .

Many brokerage firms also act as makers and may be referred to as “broker-dealers” since different divisions within the firm perform both functions.

- Securities dealers: individuals buying and selling for account
- Brokers: individuals buying and selling for ’ accounts

Types of securities accounts offered by brokerage firms
- Cash account VS Margin account
Margin: The amount that an investor must put down to buy securities on .
Margin requirement: The percentage that the investor must put up in cash to buy securities.
Margin call: When the amount of collateral on the account fall below a specified
Maintenance margin: The minimum required for a margin account

* (Securities Investor Protection Corporation) insures accounts
against bankruptcy by brokerage firms (up to $500,000).

Cost of Investing

(1) Commissions: Fees charged by for executing orders.

(2) Bid-ask spread: implicit cost paid to makers.

(3) Price concessions: A market order is highly likely to pay .

The Short Sale

Short sale: The sale of borrowed securities in anticipation of a price ; a contract for future delivery.
- Premised on prices declining
- Sale of borrowed securities
- Shares must be and returned to lender.

Though Investor B sold the shares, the proceeds will not be
paid to B right away. The holds it to “repurchase” the shares in
future.

Time Value of Money

A dollar is more valuable than a dollar to be received in the
future

- Why?
A dollar today is more valuable because:
(1) It can be invested to make more dollars.
(2) It can be immediately consumed.
(3) There is no doubt about its receipt.

This difference between the value of a dollar today and a dollar to be
received in the future is “Time value of Money.”

If you know your required rate of return and the length of time before
cash is harvested, you can calculate some critical metrics:

* The value of a payment to be received in the future
: This measure is called a “Present Value”

* The value in the future of a sum invested
: This measure is called a “Future Value”

Present and Future Values can be calculated over single and multiple
periods

Annual Percentage Rates (APR)
: Indicates the amount of “simple interest” earned in one without
the effect of compounding

Simple Interest
: Interest earned without the effect of

* Because the APR does not reflect the true amount you will earn
over one year, the APR itself cannot be used as a discount rate.
Instead, the APR is a way of quoting the actual interest earned each
compounding period

Perpetuity
: A constant stream of cash flows that lasts

Growing perpetuity
: A stream of cash flows that grows at a rate forever

Annuity
: A stream of constant cash flows that lasts for a number of
periods

Growing annuity
: A stream of cash flows that at a constant rate for a fixed
number of periods

The Process of Financial Planning

The specification of investment

1) The capacity to meet financial
2) The financing of specific future , such as the down payment for a home
3) The provision for income at
4) The ability to leave a sizable estate to heirs or to charity
5) The ability to speculate or receive enjoyment from accumulating and managing wealth

In addition to these specific investment goals, many individuals have
general financial objectives that are related to their age, income, and
wealth. Individuals go through phases, often referred to as a financial
life cycle.

- The individual’s sheet
Assets
Liabilities

- The individual’s cash
Receipts
Disbursements

- Financial statements are expressed in the present or forecasted into the .

Taxation and Investment

- Capital gain: The in the value of an asset such as a stock or
a bond.

- Capital loss: A in the value of an asset such as a stock or a bond.

- Short-term capital gains (in 1 yr): taxed at the individual's marginal tax rate

- Long-term capital gains: taxed at no more than percent, depending on marginal tax rate

- Capital gains taxes can be avoided entirely if the individual holds the securities until he or she .
→ When calculating inheritance tax amount, these securities are evaluated based on the "current" market value.
(The capital gains tax on the appreciation is avoided.)

When an investor sells only part of the holdings, which shares are sold?
- General rule: -in, first-out
- Exception: Specified lot method (particularly, specify which shares are sold)

- Purpose of Specified lot method: to avoid excessive capital gains tax when the general rule (first-in, first-out) is applied.

- Pension plan can be a good tax shelter and eases the financial burden of .

Employer-sponsored pension plans

(1) Defined benefit (DB) plans: the company determines the and the conditions

(2) Defined contribution (DC) plans: 401(k) or 403(b), permit the employee to contribute a portion of earned income, up to a specified limit, to a savings plan. The company will a percentage of the contribution.
- Employee's contribution is tax . (This tax is deferred until the individual withdraws the money.)

Individual retirement account (IRA): An individual retirement plan that is available to .
- Employees can invest in IRAs even if they are already participating in an employer-sponsored pension plan.

Keogh account (HR-10 plan): A retirement plan that is available to -employed individuals.
- Effective contribution limit is % of earned income.
- Contributions: from taxable income
- Assets in the account are selected by the individual.
- Withdrawals are .

Non-deductible Roth IRA
- Contributions are not from income.
- Assets in the account are selected by the individual.
- Withdrawals are non-taxable.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis
- Cannot expect to beat the market .
- Earning a higher return is not necessarily outperforming the market
- Considering is also important (risk-adjusted basis).

Assumptions concerning efficient markets
1) Large number of competing participants
2) is readily available.
3) Transaction costs are small.
Random walk

1) Rationality
: When information is released in the marketplace, all investors
will adjust their estimates of stock prices in a rational way.

2) Independent Deviations from Rationality
: Even though some investors deviate from rationality, the market is
rational on .

3) Arbitrage
: Rational can over-perform irrational amateurs.

*Weak Form
: Security prices reflect only information.
(Something that has already happened is reflected in stock price.)

* Semi-strong Form
: Security prices reflect all publicly information.

* Strong Form
: Security prices reflect all information – public and .

Empirical results generally support:
- The form
- The semi-strong form

- Possible exceptions to the efficient market hypothesis, called
, appear to exist.

- Examples of Anomalies
1) Low P/E stocks have returns
2) The small firm effect: small firms have returns
3) The January effect: First few days (usually 4-5 days) of January show returns than expected compared to other days
4) The neglected firm effect: neglected firms have returns
5) The day-of-the-week effect: lower returns on Friday and returns on Monday
6) The overreaction effect: Overreaction to announcements
7) Drifts in securities prices: lingering impacts of announcements

- Empirical evidence of the existence of an anomaly does not mean the individual can take advantage of the anomaly.

- The anomaly can still exist and the market be effectively from the individual investor’s perspective.

Returns have two components:

1) Current (e.g., interest or dividends); and,
2) Capital (or Losses)

Returns can be expressed in dollar or percentage terms.

* Dollar Returns:
the sum of the current income received plus the change in value of the
asset, in .

* Percentage Returns:
the of the current income received plus the change in value of the asset, divided by the initial investment.

Expected return: The sum of the dividend yield and capital gains.

Required return: The return necessary to induce the investor to an asset when considering (1) opportunity cost from alternative options and (2) risk associated with the asset.

Realized return: The of income and capital gains earned on an investment.

Roger Ibbotson and Rex Sinquefield conducted a famous set of
studies dealing with rates of return in U.S. financial markets. They
presented year-to-year historical rates of return on five important
types of financial investments. The returns can be interpreted as what
you would have earned if you had held portfolios of the following:

1. Large-company stocks: This common stock portfolio is based on the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, which contains of the largest companies (in terms of total market value of outstanding stock) in the United States.
2. Small-company stocks: This is a portfolio composed of the stock corresponding to the smallest percent of the companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, again as measured by market value of outstanding stock.
Long-term corporate bonds: This is based on high-quality bonds with years to maturity.
4. Long-term U.S. government bonds: This is based on U.S. government bonds with  years to maturity.
5. U.S. Treasury bills: This is based on Treasury bills (T-bills for short) with a -month maturity.

The “” return earned for taking on risk.

- Treasury bills are considered to be risk-.
(All the other securities have a certain level of risk.)

- The risk premium is the return over and above the risk-free rate.

Thus, for any investment at the market,
Return = Risk-free rate + Risk

Variance, standard deviation, and histogram measure the of
asset returns.

The greater the , the greater the uncertainty.

Historical variance
= sum of squared deviations from the / (# of observations – 1)

Standard deviation = square of the variance

Stocks portfolio has the highest level of st. dev.
Thus, it has the highest level of returns. (due to risk premium)

Expected returns are based on the probabilities of outcomes.

Variance and standard deviation measure the of returns.
Using unequal probabilities for the entire range of possibilities.

Correlation is the covariance divided by the product of standard of two funds.

1. If interest rates rises, the future value of a dollar , and the present value of a dollar .
2. As the number of years increases, the future value of a dollar , and the present value of a dollar .
3. As the interest rates increase, the future value of an annuity of a dollar , and the present value of an annuity of a dollar .
4. If the number of years increases, the future value of an annuity of a dollar , and the present value of an annuity of a dollar .
5. The future value of an annuity if the payments are made at the beginning of the year.
6. The present value of an annuity if the payments are received at the beginning of the year.
7. More frequent compounding the future value of an annuity.
8. A lower interest rate the time necessary to accumulate a specified amount.
9. An in the margin requirement does not change the present value of an annuity.
10 . A decrease in interest rates the future value of an ordinary annuity and future value of an annuity due.
11. An increase in the present value of a dollar may be the result of a in the interest rate.
12. A decrease in the future value of an annuity may result from a in the interest rate or a in the annual payment.
13. If a stock's price rose from $10 to $20, the compound return as the number of years increases.
14. The decrease in the annual contribution to a retirement account the terminal value for a given interest rate.
15. For a given rate of interest and term (number of years), payments at the beginning of the year instead of the end of the year the terminal value.