Imagine that you are in charge of designing the jet propulsion system of a space shuttle. There are 5 different designs with different total cost (manufacture cost plus fuel cost) and the chance of failure. Which one do you choose? (You have one minute to answer this question)

Imagine it is post-antibiotic era and your pharmaceutical factory wants to invest money in a research project to produce new replacement for antibiotics. The anticipated market size of this new drug is $20 billion. There are five different research plans that you can invest your money in. Each plan needs a different amount of investment and leads to a different kind of formulae with a different effectiveness. Effectiveness means the percentage of pathogenic bacterial species the the drug can kill. The difference between the research budget and the market value is the profit of your factory. Be careful, if your rival companies come up with a formulae with a higher effectiveness, your market share will be zero. Which plan do you choose? (You have one minute to answer this question)

Imagine you are the CEO of Coca-Cola company. Recently you have been losing your market share to Pepsi company. You and your team are deciding on a formula change. Changing formula is a very risky decision and can cause a total consumer dissatisfaction (Actually this happened in 1985, The decision which is called " the marketing blunder of the century"). There are five levels of formula change starting from no change at all to a major formula change each with the corresponding probability of success and total failure. Total failure can cost you losing your job and leaving industry with a bad reputation. What would be your decision as the CEO of the company? (You have one minute to answer this question).