The introduction of a product to a certain
geographical area, in order to asses its
likely success or the effectiveness of the
marketing methods used
Benefits- based on actual
purchases so a reliable predicter
of future success. Not as
expensive as a national launch
Disadvantages- competitors
may copy, people may only
buy due to the novelty of the
product (exaggerating true
success), special offers can
lead to a successful start
which cant be maintained.
Analysis of trends/ moving averages
and extrapolation
A trend is an underlying pattern of
change in a set of numerical data
Moving averages are a calculation of the average of a set of data
covering a defined period of time any flactuations are eliminated (
e.g seasonal effects) its scientific thus objective and works to
highlight a trend
extrapolation is using previous records and
patterns in data to predict future values
disadvantages- less reliable if there are flactuations, assumes past
changes will continue into the future, doesn't take into account
qaulitative factors such as change in consumer taste.
Variations/ flactuations
Cyclical- Boom and recession
periods
seasonal
Random- sales can vary due to changes in taste,
fashion, publicity etc.
Correlation
A statistical technique used to establish
the strength of the relationship between
two variables. Before drawing any
conclusions a causal link needs to be
established
Limitations of qualitative forecasting
Trends don't always continue into the future,
correlation changes over time, external
influences cant be taken into consideration,
corporate objectives may be amended so other
objectives change , market research may lack
reliability, forecasts become harder to do the
further into the future they are, ignores the
special understanding staff of the business
might posses
Qualitative forecasting
the Delphi/oracle technique
Relies on asking individual experts in
the fiels for their views
Brainstorming
all individuals involved
discussing ideas.
Typically used for
problem solving
Individual hunch
A mananger may feel that they have
better understanding of the market even
when numerical data is strong they may
suggest something completely different
Advantages- with a new product there may be no past numerical
data, trends change, there may be no clear statistical indication of
future sales, factors influencing sales maynot be easy to quantify,
the manager responsible wants to make the final decision
Disadvanatges- experts may be knowledgeable
but they wont be able to understand all aspects of
the market, quantitative data is more reliiable, if
incorrect about a hunch a manger is open to
criticism
Purposes of market analysis
To gather evidence for a new strategy
Identifying significant
patterns in sales - can
allow them to have a
competitive advantage
measures performance,
motivates staff, allows
planning of resources,
work force planning and
budgets
Technology
Technology has allowed
us to analyse the market
further with the use of
loyalty cards etc.