Scenarios, Strategy and the Strategy Process

Preconsiderations
1. Purpose
  1. Keep working on a specific idea
2. Scenarios thinker
  1. Overcomes paralysis
3. Paralysis
  1. Too late for decision-making
    1. Future has already affected
4. Futurity of decision
  1. Degree to which the decision affects how the future will unfold
    1. Examples
      1. What to eat one time
        Not much affectation
      2. Where to go to school
        Much affectation
  2. Looking further into the future
    1. Uncertainty
      1. Strategic decisions
Scenario thinking
1. Helps dealing with complexity and uncertainty
2. Rationalistic decision making
  1. Predict the future
  2. Map the capabilities
  3. List optional strategies
  4. Implement selected strategy
    1. Only one anwer
    2. Actions follow thinking
  5. Evaluate performance
3. Uncertainty
  1. It can be ignored
  2. Each variable has a margin of error
  3. Some alternative futures are generated
4. Subjective probability
  1. It is left to "the expert" how to access the probabilities
  2. Managers make comparisons with other known human areas
The Strategy Process
1. is not only decision-making
2. Ongoing process
3. There's not a best strategy
4. Mental planning activity
  1. Focused on predictable elements
  2. There is unknowable risk
5. Learning through experience
6. Involves model making
7. Establishes right testing conditions
8. Defining the strategic question
  1. Align different individuals' thinking
    1. "Convergence between the paths"
  2. Inter-personal communication
    1. Takes many different paths
  3. Scenario thinking must be a customized activity
Scenarios
1. Deal with environment
2. Generate multiple alternatives
3. Proximal development
  1. Uses insights and knowledge
4. Work as scaffolds
Articulation
1. Knowledge
  1. Codified part
    1. Elements
      1. Connected
      2. Integrated
      3. Understood in context
  2. Tacit part
    1. Not well articulated
The business idea
1. Social organizations
  1. Extremely complex mechanisms
  2. Many variables interact
2. The essence of "self"
  1. Strategy different than tactics and operations
  2. Strategy means
    1. Long term direction
    2. High futility
3. Two rationalities
  1. Direction
  2. Adaptation
4. Positive feedback loop
  1. Increase of a variable
5. Distinctive competences
  1. Interactions produce value
  2. Exploitation of the system
  3. Prepared customer
    1. Pays more
    2. Creates surplus
      1. Used to acquire resources
        Maintain distinctive competences
6. Defining the customers
  1. Depends on the business of the organization
  2. Parts deciding between competitors
Working with scnerarios
1. Entrepreneurship view
  1. Identify customer evolution
  2. Study business idea performance
  3. Generate options
  4. Build options
  5. Evaluate strategy across scenarios
  6. Reiterate
2. Opportunity and capacity options
  1. Generate creative strategic options
  2. Portfolio options
    1. Market development
    2. Product development
    3. Entering new markets
    4. Acquiring organizations

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Scenarios, Strategy and the Strategy Process

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	Created by Richard Mejía over 8 years ago