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17913083
Packet 10 Concept Map
Description
Olivia Barnard Kaleigh Brauns Carolyn Davin Sarah Herber
Mind Map by
Kaleigh Brauns
, updated more than 1 year ago
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Created by
Kaleigh Brauns
about 5 years ago
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Resource summary
Packet 10 Concept Map
Time Series
Goal: Generalize the linear regression model to account for dependence of observation
ex: consumer price index, temperatures, product consumption
Secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, residual effect
Construction of time series
1. E(Yt). 2. Rt 3. Yt = E(Yt) + Rt
If evidence of autocorrelation, use a model with...
Forecasting
Smoothing Techniques
Goal: Identify secular trends apart from random fluctuations
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Accuracy
MAPE (mean absolute percentage error)
MAD (mean absolute deviation
RMSE (root mean squared error)
Regression Approach
Multilinear regression model with no cyclical component
Forecasting with time series autoregressive models
Forecasting limits
One step
Two Step
M step
Autocorrelation
Goal: to correlate time series residuals at different points in time
Properties
Tends to be positive
Diminishes over time
First order autoregressive error model
Autoregressive error
Media attachments
Screen+Shot+2019 05 01+At+1.32.29+Pm (binary/octet-stream)
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