Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

History
1. The DTM is based on the demographic changes that occurred in Britain and other developed countries
2. The model was originally, put into place to show how the population had changed in developed countries
Stages
1. 1 - High Fluctuating
  1. High Birth rate and Death rate
    1. Birth rate
      1. More children needed to provide for the family
      2. Child mortality is high, so more children are born to keep the family alive
      3. No/little family planning
      4. Religious beliefs
        No protection
        Marry young
    2. Death rate
      1. High levels of disease
      2. Bad working conditions
      3. Famine
      4. Poor Hygiene
      5. War
  2. Concave pyramid shape
  3. Total population is low
  4. e.g. Remote groups
2. 2 - Early Expanding
  1. Classic pyramid shape
  2. Death rate starts to decrease
    1. Better Education
    2. Better living conditions
    3. Better access to food
    4. Decreased child mortality
    5. Better access to doctors
    6. Infants get vaccines against disease
    7. Higher quality food
  3. Birth rate stays high
  4. Total population starts to expand
  5. e.g. Kenya
3. 3 - Late Expanding
  1. Pyramid starts to even out
  2. Death rate stay's low
  3. Birth rate starts to decrease
    1. Country is more developed, so people start to focus on work
    2. Less children are needed to work on the land
    3. Better healthcare
      1. More children will survive
    4. Family planning used
    5. Rapid urbanisation lessens capacity for large families
  4. Total population starts to grow
  5. e.g. Brazil
4. 4 - Low Fluctuating
  1. Pyramid starts to become top-heavy
  2. Total population stays high
  3. Death rate stay's low
  4. Birth rate becomes low
    1. Increased desire for possessions not family
    2. Couples choice
    3. Feminism/ Women's rights
    4. More women in education, choosing careers over family
    5. Very low infant mortality
  5. e.g. UK, USA
5. 5 - Declining?
  1. Pyramid is top-heavy
  2. Birth rate stays low/ starts to get lower
    1. Family planning
    2. Good health
    3. Late marriages
    4. Improving women's status
  3. Death rate stay's stable at low
    1. Good healthcare
    2. Reliable food source
  4. e.g. Germany
Strengths
1. The DTM gives a good generalised picture of how a population can change over time
2. It's timescales are flexible so more countries can 'fit' in with the model
3. It's easy to compare countries with only three indictors
  1. Birth rate
  2. Death rate
  3. Total population
4. Governments can use the DTM to predict how the population will change and make policies based on this
Weaknesses
1. The original DTM did not have a Decling stage (5), this was added when countries like Germany and Japan, exited the low fluctuating stage (4)
2. The DTM cannot predict when a country will reach a certain stage,. or for how long a country will stay in a stage for
3. The original model was constracted from developed European countries, the USA and Japn, so it may not be a vaild world model
4. It is based on the experience of industrialising countries, and therefore may not be vaild for non-industrialising countries such as poor, sub-Saharan African countries
5. The DTM is a strong descriptive model, but a weak predictive model
6. The DTM does not take into account migration
7. Countries in Southern Africa have had their death rate rise, so that it is similar to stage 1 due to dieases such as HIV/AIDS the DTM does not help to predict the future of these countries

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Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

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	Created by Phoebe Fletcher over 9 years ago