Most likely outcome of Paris COP 21 meeting?

Outcomes of previous COP meets?
1. Kyoto Protocol - adopted at COP 3
  1. World's first GG emissions reduction treaty. BUT completely voluntary!
  2. Guidelines est. at COP 6 in Bonn
  3. US didn't ratify under Bush
  4. Only enforced in Feb 2005!
  5. Clean Development Mechanism
  6. Joint Implementation Mechanism
  7. Developing countries exempt
2. COP 1 (Berlin)
3. COP 11 (Montreal)
4. COP 15 (Copenhagen)
  1. Copenhagen Accord
  2. No formal treaty!
  3. Most recent attempt to implement a formal international agreement
5. UNDERLYING TONE = NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ACHIEVED YET!!
6. COP 17 (Durban)
  1. Parties commit to new universal CC agreement by 2015, for period beyond 2020
    1. Paris = last chance!
7. COP 20 (Lima)
What is the Conference of Parties (COP)?
1. UN establishes IPCC in 1988 as James Hansen warns about man made global warming
2. Text of UNFCCC adopted at UN HQ in 1992
3. UNFCCC opens for signatures at 1992 Rio Earth Summit
4. UNFCCC materialises in 1994, with 196 nations having signed up. These countries are known as the "Parties". Meet on annual basis.
Potential outcomes
1. Legally binding emissions agreement (MITIGATION) - corresponding to the idea of a 'carbon budget' and 2 degrees of warming
  1. 'Stranded assets'
  2. Who has most to lose from this? E.g. China, India & Brazil
  3. With or without an obligated country specific target (non-binding)?
  4. How would this be organised at an international level?
    1. Adapting/strengthening institutions - new powers
    2. System backing INDCs - verification and reporting etc.
  5. Country specific or collective?
    1. INDCs coupled with an overall plan?
  6. Solidified by future goal of complete decarbonisation (e.g. by 2100)
  7. Will it be enough?
    1. Non-state actors e.g. cities and businesses need to do more too. Diplomacy won't solve everything!
    2. Current INDC proposals may only be enough to halt warming close to 3 degrees
      1. Targets need to be ramped up over time. An agreement must have an eye on LONG TERM goals (i.e. 2050)
  8. In tandem with a carbon price - tax or trading system?
    1. Already exists, on smaller scales, in six jurisdictions around the world (e.g EU Emissions Trading - started in 2005)
2. Momentum has been building for something big!
  1. Ban Ki-moon hosting Climate Summit in NY (2014). Mobilising the Parties (and other key figures) prior to Paris.
  2. Do governments have the confidence to take action?
  3. Extended talks in Bonn (Germany) prior to Paris
    1. Desire to finalise paper agreement before conference starts. Grown again to 50+ pages!
    2. Lack of headway on aspects such as L&D and financial commitments
  4. Huge last min push by French gov
  5. Publication of INDCs in lead up
    1. 146/196 UN nations, who cover 86% of 2010 emissions!
  6. First time large majority of governments appear to be on board
    1. Needs to be trust/consensus in any agreement. Learn from mistake of Copenhagen!
3. Progress on...
  1. Rich/poor (developed/developing) effort sharing
  2. Emissions targets/ambitions/goals. 2050? 2100?
  3. Financial commitments
    1. Volume?
    2. Who pays?
      1. Transfers to developing countries via likes of Green Climate Fund
      2. Compulsory contributions (developed) vs. voluntary (developing)
      3. Addressing large gap between existing $$ for mitigation and adaptation in developing nations and their needs/requirements (pointed out clearly by G77 group & China)
      4. Learning from errors of Copenhagen commitment
    3. Key aspect along with emissions reductions. $$ makes everything else possible!
    4. The strings attached to the INDCs! Around 25% of proposed cuts are conditional on financial support
  4. CCS
4. Deal on Loss & Damage (L&D)?
  1. E.g. climate compensation for AOSIS?
5. Mechanism for strengthening commitments over time?
  1. Binding vs. non-binding
  2. CC won't be solved overnight!
  3. Regular deepening of emissions cuts e.g. reviews and updates of INDCs
6. Nothing?! (i.e. no agreement)
  1. Seems very unlikely, but don't disregard!

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Most likely outcome of Paris COP 21 meeting?

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	Created by Matthew Roberts about 9 years ago