How effective is Canada’s plan to meet
the targets for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions
Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions currently represent about 1.6 percent of the global total.
Canada is among the top 10 global emitters and one of the largest developed world per capita
emitter of GHGs.
Under Stephen Harper, Canada became a pariah in the international community – a supposedly enlightened
country that refused to take steps to fight climate change.
Canadian federal governments have committed to reduce annual GHG emissions from the current
level of 726 megatonnes (Mt) to 622 Mt in 2020 and 525 Mt in 2030
Decisions by some provinces to put a price on carbon, through taxes or a cap-and-trade system, should slow the
increase in GHG emissions. Higher oil prices that reduce consumption might also help
Within Canada, GHG emissions vary widely across provinces ranging from 267 Mt in Alberta to 1.8
Mt in PEI in 2013.
Justin Trudeau came to power with a promise to cut GHG emissions and put a price on carbon. He made a show of
attending the Paris climate talks in December, where he got a warm welcome. But that was the easy part. Now he
has to find ways to reverse the runaway emissions train that Canada has been riding for years.
In per capita terms, Saskatchewan and Alberta are among the developed world’s largest emitters at
68 and 67 tonnes respectively. Per capita emissions in BC, Ontario, and Quebec are in the 10-14
tonne range, comparable to best performers in Western Europe.
In 2020, emissions will hit 768 megatonnes of carbon dioxide – way above Canada’s target of 622. By 2030, they will
have jumped to 815 megatonnes, compared with a target for that year of 524.
For provinces with announced GHG emission targets, the level of ambition varies widely. Alberta
plans to increase emissions towards 2020, and then return to today’s levels by 2030, while Ontario
Quebec and Manitoba plan to reduce emissions by 56, 27 and 8 Mt respectively.
Environment and Climate Change Canada, as the federal department has been renamed, very quietly posted its
latest GHG projections for 2020 and 2030.
Even if all provincial targets were fully achieved, Canada would still need to reduce GHG emissions
by an additional 45 Mt in 2020 and 55 Mt in 2030 to meet its international commitments.
The next four years in the fight against climate change will be critical ones. It’s put-up or shut-up time. Canada must
finally meet its targets, while growing the economy at the same time. And it’s Mr. Trudeau who has to get that done.
Canada contributes only about 1.6 percent of global emissions, it is one of the world’s top ten
emitters and also one of the its highest per capita emitters. However,these aggregate statistics mask
a good deal of diversity with respect to both emissions and climate policy across the country
But to produce the kind of sharp drop needed between now and 2030, Canada will have to amputate, not nip and
tuck.
In the last few years, much of the action to combat climate change has come through provincial
government policies. Such policies include a carbon tax in British Columbia, a newly-announced
hybrid of a carbon tax and emissions trading scheme in Alberta, a cap-and-trade system in Quebec
that will shortly be joined by Ontario and Manitoba, and stringent electricity regulations in Ontario
to phase out coal and incentivize renewable energy.
Significant challenges lie ahead for Canada as it works to meet its GHG emission targets, and those
challenges parallel the ones faced by the international community. Finding ways to equitably share
the burden of GHG emission reductions and practical mechanisms to allow regional and national
economies to transition to a low-carbon world will test the ingenuity and will of political leaders at
home and abroad.
GHG emissions from the oil sands, for instance, will amount to half the increase in total emissions between now and
2030.