Judgment & Decision Making

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These are flashcards for my J&D Exam
Alexis  F
FlashCards por Alexis F, atualizado more than 1 year ago
Alexis  F
Criado por Alexis F mais de 7 anos atrás
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Resumo de Recurso

Questão Responda
The tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort or time has been made SUNK COST EFFECT
The concept that explains why people think that losses loom larger than gains PROSPECT THEORY
What is prospect theory? Making decisions based on the potential value of loss/gain rather than the final outcome
What is it called when you continued to after the sunk cost? Escalation & Commitment
What is the term for when people value an object more once it becomes theirs Endowment Effect
What term does the eBay bidding wars and feeling ownership over the items exemplify? Why? Psuedo Endowment effect - b/c when they are the highest bidder they feel ownership, even though they never had it.
When you feel ownership over an item that you didn't even technically own? Psuedo-Endowment effect. WTA>WTP
What affects the magnitude of Psuedo Endowment ? The amount of time spent being the fake 'owner'
What represents how much we can charge for an item before people will stop buying it? The economic demand curve
What plays a role in determining the economic demand curve? Scarcity - it creates demand
Why does Scarcity create demand? B/c of 2 Misconceptions - 1. Scarcity = Quality 2. Reactance - people want what they cant have
What is Transaction Utility When value is directly related to how good of a deal you think a price is, given the specific context you are in at the time
What is the Buyers VS Sellers question What is the minimum $ you are willing to buy (willingness to pay) or sell an item (willingness to accept)
What were the results of the psychological Consequences of money study? The people who were primed with with thoughts of money, tend to act in ways that reinforce the idea of self-sufficiency.
What is the Emotional Forecasting Error? When people greatly overestimate their predicated amount of negative/positive emotion when dealing with loss or gain.
What is the omission bias? The tendency to do nothing to avoid having to make a decision that could be interpreted as causing harm
Why do people feel the omission bias? Because they don't want to be blamed, feel guilty if something goes wrong
What is preference reversal? When the preference for something (A) instead of something (B) is switched when the 2 are put together side by side
What explains preference reversal? The Failure of Procedure Invariance
Framing Effects are an example of what? and can cause what? Failure of Procedure invariance & Preference Reversal
Why do people get Monty's deal wrong? B/c they ignore the game change, once a door is opened , the probabilty changes. 1/3...1/2
What key terms influence the success of persuasion? -Receivers Traits - Message Content - Senders Traits
What is important of Senders Traits in Persuasion? -Is this source credible? - Are they likeable?
What makes a sender credible? It depends on the context.
What determines how much we like someone? - If they are similar to us - if they are trustworthy - if they are attractive
What types of message content influence people? - Fear Appeal - Logic
To use fear effectively in a message, people must be ...what? - Aware of the consequences - Given a realistic, workable solution
What happens when people are not given the necessary components of a fear message? People feel helpless and might act in the opposite way you intended.
What receivers traits effect the message's persuasiveness - Their need to think - Expectations - Pre-existing Beliefs
Which is more persuasive? A one or 2 sided argument? Depends on the context
When is a one sided argument effective? When the receiver already agrees with you or has no knowledge on the topic
When is a 2 sided argument more effective? -When the reciever disagrees with you or knows 2 sides of the story
What is the dis confirmation Bias When you spend more time finding fault w/ incompatible views.
What is Central Route Processing? What is it good for? A controlled, logical process. Good for long-term durable change in behavior & better predictor of future behavior
What are central route processing people persuade by more so? Persuaded by the actual message content
What is Peripheral Route Processing ? What is it good for? Automatic Process -Good for quick, but not well thought out behavior
What are people using peripheral route processing more persuaded by? Persuaded by non-message factors
How can Central Route Processing override Peripheral Route? The receiver must be motivated to process the information & able to understand it
What is the elaboration likelihood model? The amount of effort given to processing a message will determine whether the attitude change occurs.
What are the two types of Reasoning? Deductive & Inductive
When you are moving beyond the given info. what type of reasoning are you using? Deductive
When you are trying to draw conclusions, what type of reasoning do you use? Inductive
What is is Deductive Reasoning? When you start with a premise as the 'given' and you ask what follows from that
What is Inductive Reasoning? When you make forecasts about new experiences based on past experiences
Why don't people get the Wason Card Selection Task? B/c they ignore the falsification Principle and fail to prove the task right.
What is the falsification principle? To prove a rule, you must look for situations that would prove it wrong... in order to prove it right.
What is a syllogism A statement of logic *Deductive Reasoning*
What are categorical syllogisms? premises & conclusions that describe a relationship b/t two categories that begin with all, no, or some.
What are conditional syllogisms When you have IF...Then statements and draw conclusions from that
What type of syllogism is this? All birds are animals. All animals eat food. Therefore, All birds eat food. Categorical Syllogism
What type of syllogism is this? If I study, then I'll get a good grade. I studied, therefore I got a good grade Conditional Syllogism
What is the difference between truth and validity? Validity- based on form/pattern Truth - based on content
How do we reach conclusions in inductive reasoning? -Representativeness of observations -Availability of observations -Quality of Evidence
What is Attitude Polarization? Attitude about a topic becomes even stronger after reading for & against arguments for it
What does Attitude Polarization lead to? Biased assimilation of evidence
What does Motivated Reasoning describe? -IF someone has a good reason to want to believe something, they will be more likely to believe it & vice versa if they have a reason not to believe something
When is it hard not to use motivated reasoning? When you have prior knowledge & beliefs, it makes it difficult to recognize invalid arguments
What is the difference between Risk & Uncertainty Risk - Probabilities are Known Uncertainty- Probabilities are Unknown
What is the Expected Value Theory & how do you calculate it The optimal decision for a problem can be determined by finding the EV for the item Outcome X Associated Probablity
What is the Expected Utility Theory Basing decisions on How much the outcome is worth to us
Are people usually risk takers or risk averse Risk Averse
Risk Neutral means that... Expected Value & Expected Utility are Equal
Are we risk neutral? No, we place more value on inital sums of $ then our utility remains constant w/ increasing amounts of $
What is Diminishing Marginal Utility when somethings worth begins to plateau after a certain point
What is Certainty Equivalent The amount of FOR CERTAIN money you that you would accept instead of x amount of money in a gamble.
IF you are risk neutral, your CE is what to your EV? If you risk Neutral, your CE is what to your EV? Risk Neutral - CE = EV Risk Averse CE < EV
What is Risk Premium? the difference between the EV money of a gamble & a risk averse CE.
If someone is risk averse, what is their risk premium? 0, because their CE would equal their EV
When are people especially risk averse? When dealing with gains
What affects risk seeking behavior? (not framing) the size of the outcome & probablity
People are risk averse when questions are framed... how? framed in in terms of gains (when you have a sure gain, but a chance to win big)
People are risk seeking when questions are framed...how? framed in terms of losses (When you have sure loss and chance to win)

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