Energy Security

Energy SecurityEnergy Sources Renewable energy: capable of natural regeneration on a human time scale Non-renewable: energy source that is finite on a human time scale Recyclable energy source: reprocessed energy e.g uranium in nuclear fission can be used repeatedly Primary energy: found naturally Secondary energy: primary energy that has been converted to a more convenient form e.g electricity Distribution of energy reserves Russia and Eastern Europe: high reserves of natural gas and coal, amongst the top 10 countries for oil and uranium, energy surplus Europe: dependent on energy imports, low energy efficiency, lack of FFs, energy insecurity Middle East: large oil reserves e.g OPEC, unsustainable regimes affecting FF supply, energy surplus North America: large coal reserves, opportunity to exploit oil reserves in the Arctic, Antarctic and other sensitive areas, huge energy consumption (outweighs supply), energy insecurity Sub-Saharan Africa: dependent on foreign TNCs to exploit supply e.g oil in Nigeria, energy poverty Physical factors affecting energy reserves Climate: e.g the need to keep cool in hot countries (and vice versa) by way of AC, which significantly increases energy consumption in these countries Availability: e.g geology determines the availability of oil and coal Local variations: e.g cloud cover and win speed affect availability of solar and wind energy Solar variations: e.g stronger sun and longer sunshine hours along the equator (and seasonal variations) Human factors affecting energy reserves Energy infrastructure: e.g in LDCs, the infrastructure often doesn't exist to extract energy reserves such as oil Energy affordability: e.f in some parts of the world where forms of energy are available, many people cannot afford to use it Cultural preferences: e.g traditions keep people using traditional forms of energy such as open coal fires for heating Global energy security Energy Security: the extent to which a affordable, reliable and stable energy supply can be achieved Factors affecting energy security: Natural hazards Political instability Dependency on imports Rage of energy sources used Costs of energy Factors affecting UK's energy security Gas availability: diminishing North Sea gas (going to run out in 50 years), 2004: 90% of UK's gas produced in UK vs 2020: less than 10%, 20% from Norway, 40% from rest of EU, lead to decreasing political power UK and increasing of gas rich nations e.g Russia (supplies 30% of EU gas Oil availability: volatile oil prices, potential for political instability between UK and oil producing states, peak oil reached in USA in 1970, global peak oil in 2006? Global warming and renewable energy: restrictions on coal usage, limited amount of sun for solar panels, concerns over nuclear safety, waste and cost of building nuclear plants Global energy consumptionFactors leading to increased consumption: Pop increase Improves SoL Industrialisation & economic development Rural-Urban migration Future trends: increased usage by China & India, Western Eur more efficient, energy consumption in developing world doubles by 2050, increases by 1/3 in developed world, amount used by developed and developing world equal by 2050China: energy consumption parallels that of its economic development - it has quadrupled since 1980 Energy secure: largest producer of coal (reliant of coal for 70% of its electricity generation), large oil fields (3% of world's oil reserves), no longer self sufficient on oil but can afford to import from Middle East, relies of renewable energy e.g HEP (inc 3 Gorges Dam) accounts for 16% of its energy production, plans to build HEP dams on all major rivers in China Energy insecure: dependency on coal (vulnerable to global warming sanctions), gov being pressured to find alternatives to coal to reduce pollution and carbon footprint, has reached peak oil (runs out in 2 decades?), oil deposits in Tarim Basin are difficult and expensive to exploit (remote location and difficult geology), deepwater exploration for oil treated by conflict with Vietnam and the Philippines, HEP threatened by natural hazards e.g Sichuan earthquake, natural gas is very expensive and difficult to build pipelines from gas fields in Western China while liquified gas is in short supply Energy pathways: the flow of energy from producer to consumer Oil pathways: Middle East exports the most oil (4000 barrels to Japan, 3000 barrels to Eur, 2000 to N America), former USSR exports 7000 barrels, S America exports 2,500 to USA and Eur experts just 408 barrels to N America Gas pathways: main gas pathway is trans-Siberian pipeline from Russia to E. Europe, new gas pipeline planned from Middle East to E. Eur to decrease dependency on Russia Factors which make energy pathways vulnerable: Geopolitical connections between countries (Ukraine/Russia) War (Gulf war, Iraq war) Strikes by energy workers Damanged infrastructure e.g from natural disasters Disintegration of infrastructure e.g pipelines Terrorism Disrupting energy supplies: Russia and Europe Russia and Ukraine gas dispute: Ukraine's gov change in Nov/Dec 2004 had pro-western policies (as opposed to pro-Russian) leading to Russia quadrupling its gas prices which Ukraine's go refused to pay. Gazprom (51% owned by Russian gov) cut of Ukraine's gas supply Europe's dependency on Russia: Russia supplies a large proportion of Eur's gas (piped through Ukraine) so the flow of gas to Eur fell by 40% in some areas - could suffer economically if gas is cut Europe's energy security: Gazprom relies on income from exporting gas to Europe, Russia gas has always been stable (even during the Cold War), new pipelines built which bypass Ukraine and Blarus e.g South Caucus pipeline will bring gas from Azerbaijan to Europe via Turkey, Eur looking for alternative energy sources South stream pipeline: proposed by Gazprom, aims to deliver gas from central Asia and Russia to central Europe and Itlay through Balkans, will rival the proposed Nabucco pipeline, owned by the EU to deliver gas to Eastern Europe, Eu believe that Russia aims to use their gad supplied for political power and t outcompete Nabucco pipeline. Looking for more energy Canada's oil sands: oil sands are thick slurry composed of sand, water and bitumen, largest reserves in Alberta: produces a million barrels of oil per day (203) and plans to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2030 Cost of exploiting oil sands: very expensive, energy intensive, large GG emissions, water intensive (2-5barrels of water to produce every barrel), environmental impacts e.g removal of trees and shrubs Benefits: Alternative source of oil when conventional sources are unavailable for political or access reasons, could meet 16% of N America's demand for oil by 2030, additional source of oil until more renewable sources are developed, benefits Canadian economy accounted for 20% of total exports in 2007 Energy players Cartel: an association of producers or suppliers, formed to monopolise the production and distribution of a product to control prices e.g OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) Advantages for producers: able to control supply and global prices, maximises profits of producers (or GDP when state owned), political power e.g Yom Kippur war oil embargo where OPEC cut off supply to USA so they would stop supporting Israel Disadvantages for producers: to ensure oil prices remain high, supply must be relatively low, meaning overall income is limited Advantages for consumers: stable prices - more reliable Disadvantages for sonsumers: commodity traders cannot control prices, political instability/conflict may affect supply, highest prices Global energy uncertainties Factors contributing to global energy uncertainties: Future performance of global economy Scale of global pop growth Impact of rising SoL Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves Discovery of new energy technologies Scale of possible switch to renewable Possible contribution of 'unconventional' oil sources Emerging economies' demand for energy Responses to increasing energy demands Business as usual: do nothing - FFs will remain the dominant sources of energy worldwide, no investment needed in renewable energy, BUT 55% increase in global increase in CO2 emissions by 2030, emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of global emissions by 2030 Multi-energy solution: meeting future energy demands from a mixture of renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources, reduces Co2 emissions as a result of clean energy production, BUT expensive to invest in renewable energy, nuclear energy controversy Energy conservation: decreasing the amount of energy used, decreases global CO2 emissions, extends time that FFs can be used, BUT likely to inhibit growth of developing counties, requires large investment from governments globally Nuclear energy: France Benefits: 75% of electricity generated from nuclear power - helps to meet hugh energy demands, largest exporter of electricity from nuclear power - increases GDP, low levels of CO2 per capita, helps meet targets set by Copenhagen summit, environmentalists view (James Lovelock): amount of uranium needed is significantly less than coal and oil (small bottle of uranium = 200 tonnes of oil), amount of nuclear waste in minimal unlike 700 tonnes of CO2 produced by FFs, nuclear ifs cheaper while oil/coal prices will increase Costa: nuclear waste sent to Normandy for reprocessing - 97% recycled and 3% stored and disposed, land needs to be cleared to build plant - visual pollution, danger of nuclear duster e.g Chernobyl (1986), expensive (€15 billion for nuclear waste disposal), fear of terrorists getting hold of nuclear energy Nuclear energy: Cumbria Benefits: employment: 10,000 employees, 90% from West Cumbria, attracts investment, increases local income and therefor council spending Costs: radioactive wastes, reliance on one industry, dangerous (21 serious incidents of accidents between 1950 and 2000), some waste dumped in Irish sea (Irish gov pressuring Sellafield to close), visual pollution (damages tourist industry) Wind power Benefits: wind is free - low efficiency is unimportant as it doesn't cost to harness it and it is an infinite resource, wind turbines save 4 million tonnes of carbon annually Costs: low effiency - only 30% go enegy harnesses in comparison to 60% for coal powered plants, unreliable (power generates can double one day to the next so may not met demand), long process to build wind farms ( must be approves by gov, local councils etc), expensive to build, environmentalist PoV (James Lovelock): 'Far too late' for renewable energy, 1 nuclear station = 3000 win turbines, on-shore can damage farmland, ruin aesthetic, inefficient Energy conflicts Terrorist attack on Abqaiq oil processing plant: Al Qaida terrorists tries to take over Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabis, attempted to drive vehicles loaded with explosives into he compound, 2 hour gun battle between officials and terrorists, 2 terrorists and 2 guards killed but no damage to plant US invasion of Iraq: Saddam Husain was considered a threat to the security of Western oil supplies in the Middle East - by 2003 he was making deals with Russian and Chinese oil companies Iran as an energy power: 3rd largest oil reserves and 2nd largest natural gas reserves, Japan and China both mort 13% of their oil from Iran, alliances developing between Moscow, Tehran and Beijing - energy experts from Russia and Iran in exchange for Chinese goods Radical new approaches Kyoto Protocol (1997):agreements for MDCs to cut emissions and for NICs to monitor emissions, long term agreement to reduce global CO2 emissions, BUT NICs such as China and India had no obligation beyond monitoring and reporting emissions, USA didn't sing protocol Cap and trade scheme (2007): governments can set a limit on CO2 emission, and carbon emissions not used can be sold as credits to companies that produce over the limit, limits financial amazons in the private sector, financial motivation for companies to use less energy credits so they sell them, BUT companies can cone releasing high emission by buying energy credits from lower polluting companies Green taxes: in the UK, vehicle exercise duties (VED) tax vehicles according to their level of CO2 emissions (also fuel tax and aviation tax), encourages less polluting vehicles to be used, BUT those who can afford the VED may use pollution vehicles anyway Combined heat and power (CHP): captures and regulates the waste heat produced in electricity generation, cuts emission, increases efficiency of electricity generation, can use biofuel, BUT predominantly uses FFs, expensive