Energy Security: Energy Supply, Demand and Security

Sources of Energy
1. Renewable
  1. Geothermal
  2. Tidal
  3. Ocean
  4. Solar
  5. Wind
2. Non-Renewable
  1. Coal
  2. Oil
  3. Natural Gas
3. Recyclable
  1. Biomass
Energy Consumption
1. Energy availability & affordability, and cultural differences all contribute to the move to modern energy sources
2. Climate can increase consumption - there is a need for air conditioning and heating depending on the climate
3. Players
  1. Biggest = Middle East
    1. Saudi Arabia alone has 22% of the world's oil reserves
  2. Uneven distribution
  3. China has huge reserves of coal
Global Demand for Energy
1. 2 billion people don't have access to modern energy
  1. Area either have no supply network or they can't afford it
    1. One of the UN's millennium development goals = alleviate energy povery
      1. Energy poverty case study: India is fast becoming one of the world's largest energy consumers BUT only a low percentage have access to clean and efficient energy systems. This is especially the case in rural areas where an estimated 70% of the country's population live. Here they mostly use biomass - using hand-gathered solid fuels (e.g. wood/dung) for indoor cooking. This is known to cause serious health problems
      2. Energy poverty looks rather different in the UK: Energy is used mainly for heating and lighting in the UK. 5 million rural houses are not connected to the mains gas network. They instead rely on LPG for heating and cooking, however in recent years this has become considerably more expensive than mains gas. An alternative is domestic oil but this can be expensive and prices have also risen significantly in recent years.
        The winter heating allowance that is paid to pensioners by the government each year shows official recognition that energy poverty exists in the UK, if only amongst elderly people
2. Demand = need or desire for energy Consumption = use & availability
  1. In some places, demand exceeds supply
3. Sources of demand
  1. Transport takes nearly half of the world's oil production, while homes and commercial properties use a little less than one-third of it (mainly for heating)
  2. Over two-thirds of coal production is used to generate electricity in thermal power stations
  3. Much of the natural gas output is used to generate electricity, as well as hating of industrial, commercial and residential properties
4. Rising Consumption
  1. The greater the demand, the higher the consumption
    1. During the 20th Century, demand increased tenfold, but it is expected to double by 2050 and reach an annual level of around 900 exajoules
      1. While much of that energy demand will be met by non-renewable sources (natural gas, oil & coal) the forecasts also show an increasingly significant contribution by renewable energies
      2. The rise could be attributed to population growth, economic development (industrialisation) and rising standards of living
5. Future Trends
  1. Future increases in demand are unlikely to be even across the globe
    1. China and India are expected to have the largest increase, while countries in western Europe may actually reduce their demands as a result of improved efficiency and rising energy costs
      1. Energy consumption in the developing world is expected to double by 2020, while it increases by about one-third in the developed world. If this happens, energy consumption in the two 'worlds' will have become roughly equal
Energy Security
1. Security is vital for the functioning of a country, particularly of its economy and well-being of its people
  1. A country which is self-sufficient in resources will be secure as it has the energy needed for its development. For less fortunate countries which rely on imports, energy security depends on whether there is uninterrupted availability of energy at affordable prices
2. Risks to energy security
  1. Physical - e.g. exhaustion of reserves or disruption of supply lines by natural hazards
  2. Environmental - e.g. protests caused by exploitation of resources
  3. Economic - e.g. sudden rises in costs or exhaustion of domestic supplies forcing increased imports of higher-priced energy
  4. Geopolitical - e.g. political instability in energy-producing regions, disputes or conflict over sovereignty (ownership) of resources or disputes over energy transmission by pipelines or cables across countries
3. Measuring energy security
  1. Energy security is complex but one attempt to measure security is the energy security index (ESI). This assesses the extent to which a country may look forward to a reliable and affordable supply of energy - what is this risk that such a supply may be threatened?
    1. The higher the index, the lower the risk and therefore the greater the energy security
      1. Calculation based on availability (the amount and longevity of each country's domestic oil, gas and electricity), diversity (the range of energy sources used in meeting each country's energy demand), and Intensity (the degree to which the economy of each country is dependent on oil and gas)
      2. Levels of risk: ESI values range from 0 to 10 , between these values four categories or degrees of risk are recognised: Extreme risk (<2.5, most in northern Africa & northern South America & South Korea), high risk (2.5-5.0, such countries are scattered across the globe, including a number of developed countries - notably USA and Japan), medium risk (5.0-7.5, widespread category in Europe, south and south-east Asia and Australasia), and low risk (>7.5, qualifying countries include Canada, Russia, Norway and the more stable middle eastern states - all are producers and exporters of oil and gas)
    2. Characteristics of risk: heavy importers of oil and gas show high levels of risk; countries with substantial reserves show low levels of risk, regardless of their own levels of consumption; medium-sized developed countries show medium levels of risk, partly because they use a diversity of energy resources; level of risk in the large emerging economies (BRI) is similar to that in most advanced economies; the relatively low level of risk in many African countries reflects their low consumption or the existence of untapped resources; the USA has a higher risk than might be expected because its huge consumption and imports overshadow its significant oil and gas resources and the fact that it uses a diverse range of energy sources
Case Study: UK
1. 1980-90s gas and oil from the North Sea meant the UK was virtually self-sufficient. North sea is now declining in production and the UK became a net importer of gas in 2004. By 2020, gas importers could account for 80-90% of total demand
  1. Does this cause an energy security problem? Not necessarily, e.g. coal accounts for 15% of the UK's primary energy supply and most is imported. This doesn't create security issues because coal is widely available from reliable sources at competitive prices. The UK still has workable coal reserves.
    1. The UK relies not just on coal but on a mixture of oil, gas and other forms of power. In general, the UK needs to minimise risks such as disrupted supplies and escalating prices but each major source of energy has its own risk

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Energy Security: Energy Supply, Demand and Security

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