Zusammenfassung der Ressource
Voting models
- Primacy
factors -
class, age,
ethnicity,
region, gender
- Recency factors -
issues, events,
leaders, media
attention
- The Primacy Model
- Suggests long term
factors are more
important than short
term factors in
deciding elections
- Supporters of this view tend to
see stability on electoral
behaviour rather than volatilty
- The recency model
- Voting
patterns
are
volatile
- Processes such as
embourgeiosement
have led to class and
partisan dealignment
- Short
term
factors
are more
important
- Average of 10 mil voters
make their minds up in last
month of general election
- Social structures
model
- Supports primary model
- Emphasizes
importance of social
cleavages (class,
ethnicity, occupation
and gender) on
electoral outcomes
- Suggests relative
stability in voting
behaviour as cosial
factors change
slowly
- Party indentification
model
- Individuals identify with a
party and stick with it
- 1950's - over 90% of voters
went Labour or Conservative
- In 2010,only
65.1%
- Those who strongly
identify with a party
dropped to 15% by 2001
- Partisan dealignment
- process of
weakening party ties
- Rational
choice model
- Sees voters as making considered,
ratonional judgements on the basis of party
policies, issues and party leaders
- Retrospective
judgement
- Based on how
parties have
performed previously
- Issues at the
time affect
this
- 2010 election - Conservatives talked about how
they would protect the economy after Labour, and
Labour pointed out problems of Conservative plans
to make significant cuts in public services
- Reminds
voters of
administrations
during the
1980's and
1990's
- Prospective
judgement
- Based on the
perception of how a
party might perform
- Spatial model
- Parties are most likely
to attract voters if they
adopt a median point on
the political spectrum
- Valence model
- Parties are liklely to
have electoral
success if they can
convince voters of
their delivery on key
issues (economy,
law, national security)
- Voting context models
- Nature of election,
importance of he
resulting institution
and the electoral
system in operation
taken into
consideration before
vote
- 2004 European elections,
Conservatives most popular yet
they were second to Labour in
2001 and 2005 general elections
- Dominant
ideology model
- A dominant ideology
benefits the ruling elite
- Elite uses its influence in the
media and business to orchestrate
elections to its advantage