Zusammenfassung der Ressource
Global Banking
- Global Banking: Looking Ahead to 2020
- Leaders of Ernst & Young's Global Banking and Capital
Markets practice and an array of Wharton faculty members
and other industry experts
- Scenario-planning exercise revealed five overarching
trends that will continue to dominate the business of
global banking over the next decade
- Regulation will be more onerous than in the past; Emerging markets will account for a
far larger share of global economic activity, presenting both challenges and
opportunities for cross-border banks traditionally base in developed countries; Business
conditions will continue to be more volatile and unpredictable than in the years prior to
the financial crisis; Profit margins will be narrower than in the pre-crisis era and
Technology will act as a double-edged sword
- Twelve Uncertainties
- Regulatory environment; Economic shift; Globalization; Type and
degree of competition; Financial crises; Lender of last resort; Debt
situation; Securitization market; Retirement environment; Role of
technology; Customer empowerment and posture; Credit
protection rights
- What should Global Banks Do Right
Now?
- Move into emerging markets; Invest
heavily in technology; Develop a nimble
culture
- Four Scenarios
- Change, Change, Change
- New Markets
- Financial Issues
- Business as Usual
- Six critical issues
- Regulation; Capital and returns; Emerging
markets; nonbank competitors;
Technology; Focus on the customer
- Today's Reality: Finding Growth amid Business as Unusual
- The Basel III proposals impose
different layers of capital
requirements
- Minimum of 4.5% of equity to risk-weighted
assets, plus 2.5% that can serve as an
additional buffer in some circumstances
- His additional layer has the effect of being
mandatory, because banks that fall below capital
thresholds can face undesirable consequences
- Lessons learned from the financial crisis
- Around the world, economic uncertainty
continues to agitate markets
- Banks have moved away from risky products
of the past like securizations
- As the push for higher yield comes, it will cause organizations to build
new complex products
- How do banks rebuild trust in
emerging and developed
markets?
- Consumer in Western nations hold a poor opinion
of large financial institutions, which they blame ofr
causing the financial crisis
- The crisis has affected the reputation of banks everywhere
- The damage was so widespread, banks cannot simply abandon
markets where they are disliked
- Surveys have shown that banks in the Asia-Pacific region suffered less repetitional
damage than banks in the United States
- The impact of increased regulatory costs on customers
- Regulatory requirements are becoming more costly to meet while
profit margins are expected to remain narrow
- Banks will face additional capital
requirements to offset risks associated
with complexly structured products
- Customer backlash has proven significant enough for some of the larger banks to retreat
from campaigns to assets fees on debit cards
- Bank must decide what costs to pass on to customers and whether high
costs make it wise to exit certain lines of business
- Banks can pass higher costs on to customers will depend in part on the
level of competitiion
- Technology investments and employee training
- Global firms will have to make expensive
investments in information technology
- Many banks that now need improved systems to
better interact with customers face funding issues
because they recently have invested heavily to
upgrade back-office systems to meet regulators new
demands
- How level is the playing field?
- Because bank regulations have always differed form jurisdiction to juristicion, the
playing field never has been entirely level
- As regulations continue to evolve, it is not clear
whether global regulations will diverge or
converge
- In the United States, the
Volcker Rule is intended to
restrict proprietary trading
- European firms may be at a disadvantage
because they face tougher regulatory
restrictions on compensation
- Trust, transparency and institutional relationships
- Many institutional investors, regulators, and lawmakers
questioned the banks effort in selling complex, structured
products
- They will have to rebuild trust and provide
more transparency
- Borrowers need a
high level of trust
before they will take
the plunge on such an
innovative product