3851980
Description
Mind Map by Matthew Roberts, updated more than 1 year ago
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Created by Matthew Roberts
over 8 years ago
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Most likely outcome of Paris COP 21 meeting?
- Outcomes of previous COP meets?
- Kyoto Protocol - adopted at COP 3
- World's first GG emissions reduction
treaty. BUT completely voluntary!
- Guidelines est. at COP 6 in Bonn
- US didn't ratify under Bush
- Only enforced in Feb 2005!
- Clean Development Mechanism
- Joint Implementation Mechanism
- Developing countries exempt
- World's first GG emissions reduction
treaty. BUT completely voluntary!
- COP 1 (Berlin)
- COP 11 (Montreal)
- COP 15 (Copenhagen)
- Copenhagen Accord
- No formal treaty!
- Most recent attempt to implement a
formal international agreement
- Copenhagen Accord
- UNDERLYING TONE = NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ACHIEVED YET!!
- COP 17 (Durban)
- Parties commit to new
universal CC agreement by
2015, for period beyond 2020
- Paris = last chance!
- Paris = last chance!
- Parties commit to new
universal CC agreement by
2015, for period beyond 2020
- COP 20 (Lima)
- Kyoto Protocol - adopted at COP 3
- What is the Conference of Parties (COP)?
- UN establishes IPCC in 1988
as James Hansen warns about
man made global warming
- Text of UNFCCC adopted at UN HQ in 1992
- UNFCCC opens for signatures at 1992 Rio Earth Summit
- UNFCCC materialises in 1994, with 196 nations
having signed up. These countries are known as
the "Parties". Meet on annual basis.
- UN establishes IPCC in 1988
as James Hansen warns about
man made global warming
- Potential outcomes
- Legally binding emissions agreement
(MITIGATION) - corresponding to the idea of a
'carbon budget' and 2 degrees of warming
- 'Stranded assets'
- Who has most to lose from this? E.g. China, India & Brazil
- With or without an obligated country
specific target (non-binding)?
- How would this
be organised at
an international
level?
- Adapting/strengthening
institutions - new powers
- System backing
INDCs - verification
and reporting etc.
- Adapting/strengthening
institutions - new powers
- Country specific
or collective?
- INDCs coupled with an overall plan?
- INDCs coupled with an overall plan?
- Solidified by future
goal of complete
decarbonisation (e.g. by 2100)
- Will it be
enough?
- Non-state actors
e.g. cities and
businesses need to
do more too.
Diplomacy won't
solve everything!
- Current INDC proposals
may only be enough to halt
warming close to 3 degrees
- Targets need to be ramped up over
time. An agreement must have an
eye on LONG TERM goals (i.e. 2050)
- Targets need to be ramped up over
time. An agreement must have an
eye on LONG TERM goals (i.e. 2050)
- Non-state actors
e.g. cities and
businesses need to
do more too.
Diplomacy won't
solve everything!
- In tandem with a carbon price -
tax or trading system?
- Already exists, on smaller scales, in
six jurisdictions around the world (e.g
EU Emissions Trading - started in 2005)
- Already exists, on smaller scales, in
six jurisdictions around the world (e.g
EU Emissions Trading - started in 2005)
- 'Stranded assets'
- Momentum has been building
for something big!
- Ban Ki-moon hosting Climate Summit
in NY (2014). Mobilising the Parties (and
other key figures) prior to Paris.
- Do governments have the
confidence to take action?
- Extended talks in Bonn
(Germany) prior to Paris
- Desire to finalise paper agreement before
conference starts. Grown again to 50+ pages!
- Lack of headway on aspects such as L&D and financial commitments
- Desire to finalise paper agreement before
conference starts. Grown again to 50+ pages!
- Huge last min push
by French gov
- Publication of INDCs in lead up
- 146/196 UN nations, who cover 86% of 2010 emissions!
- 146/196 UN nations, who cover 86% of 2010 emissions!
- First time large majority of
governments appear to be on board
- Needs to be trust/consensus in any agreement. Learn from mistake of Copenhagen!
- Needs to be trust/consensus in any agreement. Learn from mistake of Copenhagen!
- Ban Ki-moon hosting Climate Summit
in NY (2014). Mobilising the Parties (and
other key figures) prior to Paris.
- Progress on...
- Rich/poor (developed/developing)
effort sharing
- Emissions targets/ambitions/goals. 2050? 2100?
- Financial commitments
- Volume?
- Who pays?
- Transfers to developing countries via likes of Green Climate Fund
- Compulsory contributions (developed) vs. voluntary (developing)
- Addressing large gap between existing $$ for mitigation and
adaptation in developing nations and their needs/requirements
(pointed out clearly by G77 group & China)
- Learning from errors of Copenhagen commitment
- Transfers to developing countries via likes of Green Climate Fund
- Key aspect along with emissions reductions.
$$ makes everything else possible!
- The strings attached to the INDCs! Around 25% of proposed cuts are conditional on financial support
- Volume?
- CCS
- Rich/poor (developed/developing)
effort sharing
- Deal on Loss &
Damage (L&D)?
- E.g. climate
compensation for AOSIS?
- E.g. climate
compensation for AOSIS?
- Mechanism for strengthening commitments over time?
- Binding vs.
non-binding
- CC won't be
solved overnight!
- Regular deepening
of emissions cuts
e.g. reviews and
updates of INDCs
- Binding vs.
non-binding
- Nothing?! (i.e. no agreement)
- Seems very unlikely, but
don't disregard!
- Seems very unlikely, but
don't disregard!
- Legally binding emissions agreement
(MITIGATION) - corresponding to the idea of a
'carbon budget' and 2 degrees of warming
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