Leaders of Ernst & Young's Global Banking and Capital
Markets practice and an array of Wharton faculty members
and other industry experts
Scenario-planning exercise revealed five overarching
trends that will continue to dominate the business of
global banking over the next decade
Regulation will be more onerous than in the past; Emerging markets will account for a
far larger share of global economic activity, presenting both challenges and
opportunities for cross-border banks traditionally base in developed countries; Business
conditions will continue to be more volatile and unpredictable than in the years prior to
the financial crisis; Profit margins will be narrower than in the pre-crisis era and
Technology will act as a double-edged sword
Twelve Uncertainties
Regulatory environment; Economic shift; Globalization; Type and
degree of competition; Financial crises; Lender of last resort; Debt
situation; Securitization market; Retirement environment; Role of
technology; Customer empowerment and posture; Credit
protection rights
What should Global Banks Do Right
Now?
Move into emerging markets; Invest
heavily in technology; Develop a nimble
culture
Four Scenarios
Change, Change, Change
New Markets
Financial Issues
Business as Usual
Six critical issues
Regulation; Capital and returns; Emerging
markets; nonbank competitors;
Technology; Focus on the customer
Today's Reality: Finding Growth amid Business as Unusual
The Basel III proposals impose
different layers of capital
requirements
Minimum of 4.5% of equity to risk-weighted
assets, plus 2.5% that can serve as an
additional buffer in some circumstances
His additional layer has the effect of being
mandatory, because banks that fall below capital
thresholds can face undesirable consequences
Lessons learned from the financial crisis
Around the world, economic uncertainty
continues to agitate markets
Banks have moved away from risky products
of the past like securizations
As the push for higher yield comes, it will cause organizations to build
new complex products
How do banks rebuild trust in
emerging and developed
markets?
Consumer in Western nations hold a poor opinion
of large financial institutions, which they blame ofr
causing the financial crisis
The crisis has affected the reputation of banks everywhere
The damage was so widespread, banks cannot simply abandon
markets where they are disliked
Surveys have shown that banks in the Asia-Pacific region suffered less repetitional
damage than banks in the United States
The impact of increased regulatory costs on customers
Regulatory requirements are becoming more costly to meet while
profit margins are expected to remain narrow
Banks will face additional capital
requirements to offset risks associated
with complexly structured products
Customer backlash has proven significant enough for some of the larger banks to retreat
from campaigns to assets fees on debit cards
Bank must decide what costs to pass on to customers and whether high
costs make it wise to exit certain lines of business
Banks can pass higher costs on to customers will depend in part on the
level of competitiion
Technology investments and employee training
Global firms will have to make expensive
investments in information technology
Many banks that now need improved systems to
better interact with customers face funding issues
because they recently have invested heavily to
upgrade back-office systems to meet regulators new
demands
How level is the playing field?
Because bank regulations have always differed form jurisdiction to juristicion, the
playing field never has been entirely level
As regulations continue to evolve, it is not clear
whether global regulations will diverge or
converge
In the United States, the
Volcker Rule is intended to
restrict proprietary trading
European firms may be at a disadvantage
because they face tougher regulatory
restrictions on compensation
Trust, transparency and institutional relationships
Many institutional investors, regulators, and lawmakers
questioned the banks effort in selling complex, structured
products
They will have to rebuild trust and provide
more transparency
Borrowers need a
high level of trust
before they will take
the plunge on such an
innovative product