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Statistics Chapter 17

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Chapter 17 review quiz
Bradford Richard
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Resumen del Recurso

Pregunta 1

Pregunta
There are three components to any decision:
Respuesta
  • 1. the choices available, or alternatives 2. the states of nature, which are not under the control of the decision maker 3. the payoffs
  • 1. The goals of the decider 2. The steps to reach the goal 3. The risks invovled
  • 1. The total list of options 2. The option with the best return 3. Selecting the best option

Pregunta 2

Pregunta
Event
Respuesta
  • Uncertainty regarding future demand. State of nature (future demand) unknown. Decision maker has no control over state of nature.
  • Two or more courses of action open to decision maker. Decision maker must evaluate alternatives. Decision maker selects a course of action based on certain criteria. Depending on the set of circumstances, these criteria may be quantitative, psychological, sociological, and so on.
  • Profit. Break even. Loss.

Pregunta 3

Pregunta
Act
Respuesta
  • Uncertainty regarding future demand. State of nature (future demand) unknown. Decision maker has no control over state of nature.
  • Two or more courses of action open to decision maker. Decision maker must evaluate alternatives. Decision maker selects a course of action based on certain criteria. Depending on the set of circumstances, these criteria may be quantitative, psychological, sociological, and so on.
  • Profit. Break even. Loss.

Pregunta 4

Pregunta
Outcome Payoff Consequence
Respuesta
  • Profit. Break even. Loss.
  • Two or more courses of action open to decision maker. Decision maker must evaluate alternatives. Decision maker selects a course of action based on certain criteria. Depending on the set of circumstances, these criteria may be quantitative, psychological, sociological, and so on.
  • Uncertainty regarding future demand. State of nature (future demand) unknown. Decision maker has no control over state of nature.

Pregunta 5

Pregunta
EMV(Ai)
Respuesta
  • refers to the expected monetary value of decision alternative, i. There may be many decisions possible. We will let 1 stand for the first decision, 2 for the second, and so on. The lower- case letter i represents the entire set of decisions.
  • refers to the probability of the states of nature. There can be an unlimited number, so we will let j represent this possible outcome.
  • refers to the value of the payoffs. Note that each payoff is the result of a combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature.

Pregunta 6

Pregunta
P(Sj)
Respuesta
  • refers to the probability of the states of nature. There can be an unlimited number, so we will let j represent this possible outcome.
  • refers to the value of the payoffs. Note that each payoff is the result of a combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature.
  • refers to the expected monetary value of decision alternative, i. There may be many decisions possible. We will let 1 stand for the first decision, 2 for the second, and so on. The lower- case letter i represents the entire set of decisions.

Pregunta 7

Pregunta
V(Ai, Sj)
Respuesta
  • refers to the value of the payoffs. Note that each payoff is the result of a combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature.
  • refers to the probability of the states of nature. There can be an unlimited number, so we will let j represent this possible outcome.
  • refers to the expected monetary value of decision alternative, i. There may be many decisions possible. We will let 1 stand for the first decision, 2 for the second, and so on. The lower- case letter i represents the entire set of decisions.

Pregunta 8

Pregunta
A method to analyze a decision regarding which property to buy is to determine the profit that might be lost because the state of nature (the market behaviour) was not known at the time the land developer bought the land.
Respuesta
  • opportunity loss or regret
  • opportunity gains
  • best decision method
  • opportunity decision regret

Pregunta 9

Pregunta
An opportunity loss table can be developed by taking:
Respuesta
  • The difference between the optimal decision and any other decision made.
  • The difference between the opportunity loss and the optimal decision made.
  • The difference between the opportunity loss and any other decision made
  • The difference between the optimal and the least optimal decisions.

Pregunta 10

Pregunta
EOL(Ai)
Respuesta
  • refers to the expected opportunity loss for a particular decision alternative.
  • refers to the probability associated with the states of nature, j.
  • refers to the regret or loss for a particular combination of a state of nature and a decision alternative.

Pregunta 11

Pregunta
P(Sj)
Respuesta
  • refers to the expected opportunity loss for a particular decision alternative.
  • refers to the probability associated with the states of nature, j.
  • refers to the regret or loss for a particular combination of a state of nature and a decision alternative.

Pregunta 12

Pregunta
R(Ai, Sj)
Respuesta
  • refers to the expected opportunity loss for a particular decision alternative.
  • refers to the probability associated with the states of nature, j.
  • refers to the regret or loss for a particular combination of a state of nature and a decision alternative.

Pregunta 13

Pregunta
The lowest expected opportunity loss and highest expected payoff will...
Respuesta
  • Always lead to the same decision concerning which course of action to follow.
  • Always lead to the opposite decision concerning which course of action to follow.
  • Usually lead to a similar decision concerning which course of action to follow.
  • Always lead to a different decision concerning which course of action to follow.

Pregunta 14

Pregunta
maximin strategy
Respuesta
  • The strategy that maximizes the minimum gain
  • The strategy that maximizes the maximum gain
  • The strategy that minimizes the maximum regret

Pregunta 15

Pregunta
maximax strategy
Respuesta
  • The strategy that maximizes the minimum gain
  • The strategy that maximizes the maximum gain
  • The strategy that minimizes the maximum regret

Pregunta 16

Pregunta
minimax regret strategy
Respuesta
  • The strategy that maximizes the minimum gain
  • The strategy that maximizes the maximum gain
  • The strategy that minimizes the maximum regret

Pregunta 17

Pregunta
Value of perfect information is
Respuesta
  • The difference between the maximum payoff under conditions of certainty and the maximum payoff under uncertainty.
  • The difference between the minimum payoff under conditions of uncertainty and the minimum payoff under certainty.
  • Very valuable information
  • Statistical data with a zero degree of error.

Pregunta 18

Pregunta
Sensitivity analysis
Respuesta
  • lets you see how accurate the probability estimates must be to feel comfortable with your choice.
  • Analysis how sensitive the data is to inclimate weather or acts of god.
  • Is the first step in the decision process.
  • Compares objections being voiced with history of experiences.

Pregunta 19

Pregunta
Decision trees
Respuesta
  • Present a picture of the various courses of action and the possible states of nature.
  • Are long term plans to continually make the best decisions over time.
  • Is a method of growing the accuracy of a choice with more data.
  • Is an alphabetical list of all decisions options.

Pregunta 20

Pregunta
backward induction
Respuesta
  • Is a strategy to find the best decision in a decision tree.
  • Is a common mistake made by statisticians.
  • Is a decision tree constructed backwards.
  • Is the process of making a decision and verifying it afterwards.

Pregunta 21

Pregunta
The various courses of action are called
Respuesta
  • The acts or alternatives
  • The decisions
  • The probabilities
  • The Consequences

Pregunta 22

Pregunta
The uncontrollable future events are called
Respuesta
  • The acts or alternatives
  • The decisions
  • The states of Nature
  • The payoff table

Pregunta 23

Pregunta
The consequence of a particular decision alternative and state of nature is called
Respuesta
  • The payoff
  • The states of nature
  • The Probabilities
  • The acts or alternatives

Pregunta 24

Pregunta
Probabilities are usually assigned to
Respuesta
  • The states of nature
  • The acts or alternatives
  • The payoff
  • The decision

Pregunta 25

Pregunta
All possible combinations of decision alternatives and states of nature result in
Respuesta
  • A payoff table
  • The states of nature
  • The acts or alternatives
  • The probabilities
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