ES 200 1/30

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Fichas sobre ES 200 1/30, creado por Jacob Sipple el 28/01/2020.
Jacob Sipple
Fichas por Jacob Sipple, actualizado hace más de 1 año
Jacob Sipple
Creado por Jacob Sipple hace casi 5 años
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Sefan Boltzman Equation W/m^2 = sigma x T^4(temp in Kelvin)
temperature for all energy models 1-4 -242C if no sun 5C if no greenhouse gases no GHG and reflection = -18C/0F GHG and reflection = 15C
Energy balance model 1 no sun: earth's surface 32K
RCP Representative Concentration pathways RCP2.6(low emission) scenario RCP8.5(high emission) scenario
Energy balance model 2 no albedo, no GHG: 5C
Energy balance model 3 albedo, no GHG: -18C/-.4F
Energy balance model 4 adds GHG from 3: 30C
steps to develop climate model 1. develop equations 2. solve equations on comp by grid segments(latitude and longitude) 3. build and implement conceptual models 4. compare predictions to observations 5. adjust components to bring closer to observations
FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4 FAR(First assessment report) SAR(Second assessment report) TAR(Third assessment report) AR4(forth assessment repo
Atmospheric-OceanGeneral Circulation models study dynamics of atmospheric ocean, land, and sea ice on climate. older used when biogeochemical feedbacks not critical
Earth System models used to study different biogeochemical cyles(i.e. carbon, sulfur, and ozone cycle) most state of the art
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity simplified version of Earth System models used to understand climate feedback over time(scale 1000s of years)
CMIP5(Climate Model Intercomparison Project) over 100 climate models. modeling groups run same experiment with their models and compare results
multimodel ensemble using many different models to estimate forecast, specifically used a lot with hurricanes, which is why there are predictions of different ways the hurricane might go
examples of CMIP5 experiments past 1.5 centuries quadruple CO2 abruptly preindustrial conditions hindsight without an event decadal forecast with a climate changing event in a year
natural inputs volcanoes and sun
anthropogenic inputs greenhouse gases and aerosols
processing producing variability solar(sunspots), volcanoes, el nino, greenhouse gases
Socio-Economic scenarios (SRES, SRES A2, A1B, B1) emissions due to socio-economic development, energy production and use, technology, forestry, agriculture, and land use
any RCP models predict drop in temperatures by 2100? RCP2.6
predicted concentrations of CO2 depending on RCP in 2100 RCP8.5: 1000 RCP6: ~600 RCP4.5: ~520 RCP2.6: ~400
where would temperature changes be more extreme towards the poles
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