2504886
Energy
Security &
the Future
- Future
Uncertainties
- A glitch in world energy
supplies could trigger an
economic catastrophe
- e.g. Oil - such an event could happen if we have a
global rise in oil consumption; we reach 'peak oil' =
declining production & rising prices; oil production
in fewer countries as sources run dry; OPEC's
unpredictable actions & other producer countries
- e.g. Oil - such an event could happen if we have a
global rise in oil consumption; we reach 'peak oil' =
declining production & rising prices; oil production
in fewer countries as sources run dry; OPEC's
unpredictable actions & other producer countries
- Factors contributing to global
energy uncertainty...
- Future performance of global economy
- Scale of population growth
- Impact of rising living standards
- Size of undiscovered oil & gas reserves
- Discovery of
new energy
technologies
- The scale of the
possible switch
to renewable
energies
- Possible contribution of
'unconventional' oil sources
- Emergent economies' energy demands
- Future performance of global economy
- A glitch in world energy
supplies could trigger an
economic catastrophe
- Responses to Increasing Energy Demands
- 1. Business as Usual
- Do nothing
- If we took this path forecasts
between now and 2030 suggest...
- Global primary energy demand will rise by 53%
leading to a 55% increase in CO2 emissions
- Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of worldwide energy
- over 70% of the increase in global primary energy demand will come
from developing countries, reflecting economic and population growth
- Global primary energy demand will rise by 53%
leading to a 55% increase in CO2 emissions
- Do nothing
- 2. Multi-energy Solution
- Involves meeting future energy
demands from a mixture of
renewable, recyclable and
non-renewable sources
- A rich fuel mix is required
to ensure energy security
and maintain an affordable
supply for individuals and
industry.
- One controversial element: Nuclear power
- Attitudes to Nuclear are shifting in response to
dying fossil fuels and climate change
- China & India are building several reactors and intend to increase
their nuclear generation capacity in the next 15 years
- By 2008, some 439 nuclear
reactors in 31 countries were
supplying 15% of the world's
electricity, 370 gigawatts p.a.
- Estimated that by 2030, this output
will increase to 520 gigawatts
- Estimated that by 2030, this output
will increase to 520 gigawatts
- Advantages: no greenhouse emissions; uranium is relatively cheap
and easy to mine; most uranium reserves are plentiful and will last for
up to 150 years; cost-effective transport as its used in small quantities
- Disadvantages: 1986
Chernobyl - designed to be
safe but still generate
toxic waste in radioactive
materials; difficult to
manage; expensive, can
cost £7 billion to design
and build
- Disadvantages: 1986
Chernobyl - designed to be
safe but still generate
toxic waste in radioactive
materials; difficult to
manage; expensive, can
cost £7 billion to design
and build
- Attitudes to Nuclear are shifting in response to
dying fossil fuels and climate change
- Example: Wind Power
- Produces about 1% of the
global electricity supply
- Wind energy is
plentiful, renewable,
widely distributed and
clean & can reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions by replacing
fossil fuels as a source
of electricity.
- Fluctuations
in wind speed
rarely cause
problems
when wind
power is used
to supply a low
proportion of
total demand
- Wind farms have
met with local
opposition, some
believe they are
unsightly, make a
droning noise and
pose a danger to
birds
- Wind energy is
plentiful, renewable,
widely distributed and
clean & can reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions by replacing
fossil fuels as a source
of electricity.
- There's no one source
that ticks all the boxes
for meeting rising
energy demand without
increasing emissions
but wind power must
come close in terms of
costs and sustainability
- However, it is
claimed that most
of the UK would be
covered by wind
farms if they were
to completely
replace fossil fuels
as generators of
electricity
- However, it is
claimed that most
of the UK would be
covered by wind
farms if they were
to completely
replace fossil fuels
as generators of
electricity
- Produces about 1% of the
global electricity supply
- One controversial element: Nuclear power
- Involves meeting future energy
demands from a mixture of
renewable, recyclable and
non-renewable sources
- 3. Energy Conservation
- Based on decreasing the amount of energy used -
individuals and organisations that are direct
consumers of energy may want to reduce
consumption for a number of reasons: to reduce
costs; to reduce harmful emissions; to promote
energy security on a regional or national scale
- Energy conservation has been high on the
political agenda if the EU in recent years
- Countries have targets to reduce
their carbon emissions and cut
their energy requirements by
increasing efficiency with which
energy is consumed
- e.g. UK is working towards a
zero energy building standard for
all new housing by 2016
- e.g. UK is working towards a
zero energy building standard for
all new housing by 2016
- Countries have targets to reduce
their carbon emissions and cut
their energy requirements by
increasing efficiency with which
energy is consumed
- Energy conservation has been high on the
political agenda if the EU in recent years
- Based on decreasing the amount of energy used -
individuals and organisations that are direct
consumers of energy may want to reduce
consumption for a number of reasons: to reduce
costs; to reduce harmful emissions; to promote
energy security on a regional or national scale
- 1. Business as Usual
- Energy Insecurity
& Geopolitical
Tensions
- The key to energy security lies in...
- making the greatest
possible use of
domestic sources of
energy
- making the greatest
possible use of
domestic sources of
energy
- The key to energy security lies in...
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