Energy Security and the future

Future uncertainties
1. Oil can cause an economic catastrophe
  1. Rise in global consumption
  2. The possibility that we may have reached peak oil
  3. The concentration of oil production in fewer countries
  4. Oil wells are pumped dry
  5. Unpredictable actions of OPEC
2. Factors contributing to Global energy uncertainty
  1. Impact of rising living standards
  2. Size of undiscovered reserves
  3. Discovery of new technologies
  4. Scale of switch towards renewables
  5. Emergent economies' energy demands
  6. Future performance of global economy
  7. Scale of global population growth
Responses to increasing energy demands
1. Business as usual, if we do nothing, between now and 2030:
  1. Primary energy will rise by 53%
  2. 55% increaase in CO2 emissions
  3. Fossil fuels will remain dominant source
  4. Demand for electricity rises
    1. Electricity generation will account for 44% of CO2 emissions
  5. Coal will provide the largest incremental source, majority in China
  6. Over 70% increase in energy demand will come from LEDCs
    1. Due to economic and population growth
2. Multi-energy Solution
  1. Involves meeting future energy demands from a mixture of resources
  2. Rich fuel mix is necessary to ensure energy security and to maintain an affordable supply
  3. Controversial issue: Nuclear and Wind
  4. Many different types of resources
    1. Wind Farms in Anglesey
    2. Solar - Cloudless skies in the Sahara
    3. Landfill gas in the UK
    4. Solar power in the Med
    5. HEP at the Hoover Dam
3. Energy Conservation
  1. Decreasing the amount of energy used
  2. Individual/Organisation
    1. Reduce costs
    2. Maximise profits
    3. Reduce emissions
    4. Promote energy security
  3. High on political agenda
    1. Countries have targets to reduce emissions
    2. Move to renewables
    3. Cut energy requirements by increasing efficiency - Zero Energy Building Standards
Energy Insecurity & Political Tensions
1. Key to energy security
  1. Making greatest use of domestic sources
  2. Diversifying energy resources
  3. Ensuring guarantees of imported energy
    1. Greatest challenge
      1. Increasing competition for energy
      2. World falls into two camps: producers and consumers
      3. Producers: Use energy as a tool, form partnerships like OPEC
      4. Military tension around stress points
2. OIl and Conflict
  1. Oil seen as a driving force in military action, e.g. Iraq
  2. China in Africa - China competing with other nations to secure African oil
  3. Most of the conflict in the world has been triggered by oil
  4. Increase interest in remaining reserves
  5. Middle East is a global energy hotspot
Meeting future energy needs
1. Stick and carrot- Emission controls
  1. Emissions Controls
    1. Kyoto Protocol
    2. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
    3. 182 countries have signed up to the proposal
    4. Not universally welcomed, especially to LDCs as they need to increase their emissions, rather than reduce them more.
  2. Emissions Trading
    1. Allows countries to sell their surplus savings to those who are over their limit on their carbon count.
    2. Carbon emissions are tracked and can be traded.
    3. Good arrangement for environmenntally conscientious countries
    4. Some countries may seem to be let off of the hook
  3. Green Taxes
    1. Introduced with the aim of cutting the use of natural resources and encouraging waste recycling
    2. For example, taxing of vehicles depending on the amount they emit
    3. For example, removing stamp duty on carbon neutral homes
    4. Increasing duty on diesel and raising air passenger duty
2. Radical New Technologies: Use of renewables and advances in technology
  1. Offshore Wind Turbines
    1. Costs 50% more than to do so on land
    2. Wind speeds are generally double that than on land
    3. Less visible and reduced noise pollution
    4. Could interfere with radar and pose a threat to national security
    5. Horns Rev, one of the largest in the world
      1. Covers 20km squared
      2. $270million to build
      3. Generates 4000kW per hour
  2. Carbon Storage
    1. Involves capturing the carbon dioxide and burying it deep underground
    2. Allows clean electricity to be produced from coal
    3. Noone knows if it will really work, nor do they know whether it will stay underground
    4. Expensive
  3. Geothermal Energy
    1. Free, inexhaustible and available day and night
    2. No use of extra land and it is available in many parts of the world
    3. Not easy to do, in many places it is too deep to extract, therefore making it expensive
  4. Biofuels
    1. Crops, trees and algae
    2. A lot of processing is needed
    3. New crops need to be developed, tailored specifically for fuel
    4. Supply chains are costly
    5. Can encourage deforestation and food shortages

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Energy Security and the future

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