Infant mortality is high, so people have more children to ensure the
survival of some. There is less birth control and education leading to
unplanned pregnancies
For the UK, cheap gin drinking caused a higher death rate
Tribes in the Amazon Rainforest - high BR and DR
Stage 2 - 1760 to 1880
Healthcare and medicine is improving, so birth rate remains high and the death rate falls
In the UK, there was a ban on child labour (children were more
expensive) so BR fell, DR fell rapidly due to outpatient clinics and
Jenner's Smallpox vaccine (1798)
Ethiopia - DR fallen to 15/1000/year, BR still high 38/1000/year
Stage 3 - 1880 to 1940
Working more so fewer children
In the UK, BR fell as birth control information was spread by Rev.
Bradlaugh, so families had less children, also the first world war
meant having children was postponed for many people
Brazil - very low DR of 6/1000/year, BR fallen to 15/1000/year
Stage 4 - 1940 to Today
In the UK, at the end of the war there was a baby boom
as people had the hope of a better future for
their children, so BR increased
Although there was a period of natural decrease
in 1975 due to the introduction of the
contraceptive pill, as well as equal pay and
economic recession.
UK - BR low at 11/1000/year, DR low but increased at 10/1000/year
Stage 5
Less people in the workforce and too many people claiming pensions, bad for the economy
Germany - BR of 8/1000/year, DR of 11/1000/year
Limitations
Not all countries follow it
The DTM doesn't take into account factors that affect the birth/death rate
The original model did not include stage 5
Strengths
Projects the future for countries in the lower stages
Useful for giving data to the population changes
Countries can be compared fairly
Key Terms
Birth Rate
Number of live births per 1000 people per year
Death Rate
Number of deaths per 1000 people per year
Natural Change
The change in size of a population due to the interrelationship between birth rates and death rates