Recency factors -
issues, events,
leaders, media
attention
The Primacy Model
Suggests long term
factors are more
important than short
term factors in
deciding elections
Supporters of this view tend to
see stability on electoral
behaviour rather than volatilty
The recency model
Voting
patterns
are
volatile
Processes such as
embourgeiosement
have led to class and
partisan dealignment
Short
term
factors
are more
important
Average of 10 mil voters
make their minds up in last
month of general election
Social structures
model
Supports primary model
Emphasizes
importance of social
cleavages (class,
ethnicity, occupation
and gender) on
electoral outcomes
Suggests relative
stability in voting
behaviour as cosial
factors change
slowly
Party indentification
model
Individuals identify with a
party and stick with it
1950's - over 90% of voters
went Labour or Conservative
In 2010,only
65.1%
Those who strongly
identify with a party
dropped to 15% by 2001
Partisan dealignment
- process of
weakening party ties
Rational
choice model
Sees voters as making considered,
ratonional judgements on the basis of party
policies, issues and party leaders
Retrospective
judgement
Based on how
parties have
performed previously
Issues at the
time affect
this
2010 election - Conservatives talked about how
they would protect the economy after Labour, and
Labour pointed out problems of Conservative plans
to make significant cuts in public services
Reminds
voters of
administrations
during the
1980's and
1990's
Prospective
judgement
Based on the
perception of how a
party might perform
Spatial model
Parties are most likely
to attract voters if they
adopt a median point on
the political spectrum
Valence model
Parties are liklely to
have electoral
success if they can
convince voters of
their delivery on key
issues (economy,
law, national security)
Voting context models
Nature of election,
importance of he
resulting institution
and the electoral
system in operation
taken into
consideration before
vote
2004 European elections,
Conservatives most popular yet
they were second to Labour in
2001 and 2005 general elections
Dominant
ideology model
A dominant ideology
benefits the ruling elite
Elite uses its influence in the
media and business to orchestrate
elections to its advantage