A2 Geography- Energy Security

A2 Geography- Energy Security

1. ENERGY SUPPLY,DEMAND & SECURITY

   • TYPES OF ENERGY SOURCE
     • 85% of energy supply from fossil fuels (coal,gas and oil)- high dependency
     • Renewable- wind turbines,solar cells, wave power, tidal power, hydroelectric power, geothermal.
       • Result from the flow of energy from the sun/earths interior.
         • produce no co2, do not directly contribute to atmospheric pollution
     • Non-Renewable- coal, oil, gas, unconventional oil and coal e.g tar sands,heavy oil, oil shale, peat
       • Finite stock of resources- will run out
         • Emit CO2 during combustion- cause of global warming
     • Recyclable- Biomass, Biofuel, Nuclear power(with reprocessing of fuel)
       • Resouces have a renewable stock, can be repelenished with careful management
         • biomass and biofuels emit CO2, but reabsorb it when they are regrown- makes then colse to carbon neuteral
           • nuclear- do not emit Co2 but are environmental concerns regarding radioactive uranium fuel + disposal of nuclear waste.
   • DISTRIBUTION
     • physical geography-access
       • UK- large supplies of coal, oil and gas, strong tides & winds- significant renewable energy potential.
         • low solar and geothermal potential.
       • volacanic activity- high geothermal sources
       • nuclear- uranium production- Canada & Australia leading-50%.
       • 2025- 60% world oil supply from Middle East
       • Demand v Supply- Some countries have vast surplusses (Russia,Saudi Arabia) whereas some suffer from energy poverty.
       • Some areas have huge potential but are unable to exploit them e.g solar power in Africa
   • ENERGY USE
     • energy mix a country uses depends on a number of different factors
       • Physical- availability of North Sea natural gas contributed to surge of demand in 1990's.
       • Public perception- 1950-60's- nuclear power positive but after Chernobyl-1986-public turned against it.
       • Politics- nucelar power is back- fears over politics of gas supply from Russia
       • Technology- solar panel efficiency conversion increased from 5% to 40%-1970-2008- increases viability
       • Economics- wind power becoming competitive with fossil fuels-USA- Same price as coal and gas.
       • Environment- concerns about global warming have lead to move towards renewable resources-UK wind generating capacity increased.
   • ENERGY TRENDS
     • Global energy demand expected to grow by 50% by 2030.
       • Growth-0.7% yr-developed, 2.5%+ -developing (India & China)- 2 Coal power stations a week- trying to meet demand.
         • will continue to rely on fossil fuels rather than switch to nuclear and renewables
           • nuclear power plants costly to build- long time to complete
           • renewable sources-unreliable
           • solar power difficult to upscale
           • China & India-10%+ world coal reserves- coal power stations cheap & quick to build
       • will effect price of fossil fuels
       • major environmental implications
   • ENERGY SECURITY
     • International energy pathways
       • low security- safe & secure transport by sea (oil,coal & LNG) or pipeline (gas & oil)
     • domestic renewable resources
     • foreign sources of fossil fuels
     • domestic sources of fossil fuels

2. IMPACTS OF ENERGY SECURITY

   • ENERGY PATHWAYS
     • fossil fuel supplies becoming more concentrated
     • western europe- russian gas- given russia new political power
       • run through politically troubled areas.
       • pipelines cut off e.g 2006 Ukrane cut off over payment dispute- knock on effect
       • fears that Russia will be able to dictate cost of gas- UK supplies running out- peaked 2000
     • 2030, 30% world oil pass through persian straits.- Iraq & Iran- conflict.
       • makes tankers & pipelines vunerable to attack and terrorism
     • large volumes passing through chokepoints-easily disrupted
       • piracy-somalia
   • COSTS OF DISRUPTION
     • price spikes- economic recessions
     • high oil prices- increase costs for industry- leads to inflation & rising prices
       • more money spent on energy & less on other goods- slows economic growth
       • energy fundamental in developed world- increases economic & political risks
         • reduction in sales of SUVs- 2007- USA- car companies lose profit.
         • 2000-UK- protests- petrol stations blocked
       • governments getting energy policy wrong.
         • South Africa- energy blackouts- do not have enough generating capacity to meet demand.- lack of investment
           • knock on effects- industry cutting back production, FDI reduced, loss of economic growth, traffic chaos + closure of shops
         • takes long time to build new power stations
   • LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY
     • technically difficult areas- arctic circle, deep water offshore, politically unstable (Somalia)
     • non-conventioinal fossil fuels- tar sands, oil shale, shale gas, heavy oil.
     • Environmental issues- oil spillages , destruction of forests for mining, use of fossil fuels to heat tar sands, damage to biodiverse environments, acid runoff from surface mining.
     • Arctic- 90 billion barrels of oil- 30% worlds undiscovered natural gas
       • territorial claims- fear of Arctic free for all- conflict.
       • dangers to environment- technologically advanced methods risky
   • PLAYERS IN THE ENERGY GAME
     • dominated by TNCs & state-owned oil companies
       • involved in exploration, extraction, refining & delivery.
         • TNCs verticaslly integrated into energy supply chain & many diversiying into renewables.
     • TNC criticisms
       • excessive profits- have monopoly of certain countries
       • not investing in long term- lead to supply shortages
       • damage to sensitive environments & ignoring locals
     • Consumers, National goveernments, Pressure groups, Local governments, OPEC, International organisations, TNCs, utility companies
     • OPECs- 12 major oil exporters- Africa and middle east.
       • can decrease oil supply & increase prices
       • control quotas for member states
       • 2008- 35% supply globally- has 60% of reserves- become more powerful in future

3. ENERGY SECURITY AND THE FUTURE

   • DEMAND FOR FOSSIL FUELS
     • Economic growth- energy demand- demand strong between 2002-6- economic boom. when demand became higher than supply- cost rose.
     • Efficiency- lower demand- high energy prices encouraged switch to energy efficient technology.
     • Population growth- uncertain- pressures on energy supply
     • Renewable & recyclable resources- used more extensivley would reduce demand for fossil fuels
   • PEAK OIL PROBLEM
     • after peak supplies will shrink & prices rise.
     • timing disputed- between 2010-2030.- some say currently at oil plateu,
     • 2007 price rises- possible sign of peak
     • gas less of a problem.- ghot oil shale gas, coal upto 200 yrs
   • FUTURE
     • timing of peak oil important- how urgently action is needed.
     • UK oil peak 1999, USA 1970- reliance on smaller no of nations.
       • unstable regions- middle east & africa
     • scenarios
       • Buisness as usual- Use coal oil + gas.
         • upto 2020- scramble for remaining reserves, pressure on arctic
           • 2020+ -high energy prices, increased use of non-conventional oil, widespread use of coal,
             • Issues- limited global warming progress,ecosystem destruction, air pollution, no need to develop new sources
       • New Atomic age- Nuclear power.
         • upto 2020- race to build reactors(costly), overcoming public perception
           • 2020+ -developing world excluded- cost & technology, nuclear waste problems
             • Issues- uranium mining impacts, wasted disposal concerns, lower co2 emmisions, transport technology reelevoped (electric)
       • Renewable Renaissance- Wind, solar, wave, hydrogen, biomass
         • upto 2020- biomass-easy but rises food costs, wind power-oppsition
           • 2020+ -stable supply, technology-solar viable, developing world benefits
             • Issues- major co2 reductions, large land ares used, requires hydrogen production for cars.
   • RISING TENSIONS
     • insecurity- countries use own energy resources
       • e.g USA- Bio-diesel & bioethanol- due to rising oil prices- created energy policy acts
         • created biofuel markets- farms growing fuel not food.- rising global food prices & riots in mexico
     • reliance on other countries- e.g China in Africa- bilateral agreements.-oil supply
       • concerns- bilateral agreements work against idea of open oil market, put oil interests ahead of humanitarian concerns (Sudan), undemocratic regimes (Zimbabwe), not helping african development
         • positives- brings money to worlds poorest continent infractructure development, employment.
   • ALTERNATIVES
     • needs- continuing secure supplies in developed world, meet emerging economies neess, basic needs for least developed world.
       • reduce urban air pollution, protect biodiversity, tackle global warming.
     • long term switch to renewables-
     • Refuse polluting energy sources- leave tar sands & oil shales-environmental costs of extraction & use of gas
     • Reduce overall consumption- Energy effieciency standards. tax system + carbon credits
     • Research more sustainable & affordable technologies- wind,solar,biomass, micro-hydro developed as low cost, postable systems for developing world
     • Recycle waste, convert to useful energy. landfill-methane used to generate electricity
     • Replace inefficient/wasteful technologies- Phase out non-energy saving light bulbs, replace petrol & diesel with hydrogen/electricity from renewable resources

4. SYNOPTIC LINKS

   • PLAYERS
     • large companies- TNCs/ state owned. exporation, exploitation, processing, delivery + renewables
     • governments- influence energy mix-promote remewable resources
     • pressure groups- influence energy policy, press for different resources or argue against construction e.g wind farms/ fracking
   • ACTIONS
     • governments involved in energy using targets,quotas & subsidies.
     • some ay energy markets need to be more locally controlled
   • FUTURES
     • business as usual- dependence on fossil fuels- environmental & supply implications
     • sustainable energy future- switching to remewable sources + large scale nuclear power use.
     • radical- drastic cuts in personal energy use. local/ household renewable supplies, rapid decrease in fossil fuel use + high taxes on polluters
   • LINKS TO OTHER UNITS
     • world at risk- causes of global warming
     • technological fix- contrasting energy technologies, impacts and availability
     • superpower geogrpahies- increasing power of Russia & OPEC nations,
     • development gap- role of china in exploiting africa's oil
   • LINKS TO WIDER GLOBAL ISSUES
     • global warming- kyoto protocol- shift to renewable resources.
     • development gap- energy usage, NIC's heavy coal usage, developed countries- clean & renewable resources.