Tectonic Hazard Management: Case Studies

Bam, 2003
1. 6.6Mw, 9.0 MMI
  1. Earthquake struck on 26th December 2003 at 05:26 local time
  2. 2 strong foreshocks felt on December 25th, and another 30 minutes beforehand
2. 75,000 displaced persons, 31,000 killed, 30,000 injured
  1. Nearly all who did were in buildings less than 30 years old.
    1. Nearly 90% of buildings in Bam (25,000 buildings) and Baravat (4000 buildings) were destroyed
      1. A large percentage of villages within a 10km radius suffered 60-100% destruction
    2. Infrastructure moderately damaged, to become generally operational soon after the quake and support a delayed emergency response
  2. Estimated cost: $32.7 million, up to $1.5bn with indirect costs
  3. No organised rubble removal effort, and thus no search and rescue teams present within the first 24 hours
    1. Locals largely responsible for immediate relief effort
    2. Destruction of emergency service premises and municipal communications buildings prevented local emergency response
  4. $645 million in loans and grants distributed by December 2005, benefitting14,000 households.
    1. Another $445 million allocated for 2006 from Iran's national development program
    2. 40 countries sent aid following the quake, and the UN raised $7 million
      1. Almost $131 million had been donated by March 2005
Northridge, 1994
1. 6.7Mw, 9.0 MMI
  1. Quake struck at 04:34 local time on 17th January
  2. Long history of earthquakes in the region
    1. 7.8 Mw quake killed 3,000 in San Francisco, 1906.
  3. Fault responsible not previously mapped.
2. 20,000 homeless, 60 killed, 7,000 injured
  1. $20bn in damage, the costliest seismic disaster in US history
    1. Significant damage in Fillmore, Glendale, Santa Clarita, Santa Monica, Simi Valley, Western and central Los Angeles
      1. Fires in the San Fernando Valley and at Malibu and Venice
      2. Collapse sections of freeway, famously the Santa Monica Freeway
      3. 12,000 structures damagd
  2. 80,000-125,000 permanently displaced due to damage to homes
  3. Major building collapse prevented though use of counterweights, cross-braces and shock absorbers in skyscrapers
    1. Further building regulations introduced to improve future safety.
    2. The Grate Shakeout has been running in California since 2008, attracting 9.4 million participants in 2012
  4. Fast emergency response due to prepared plans of action
    1. Dams, hospitals, industrial facilities and fuel storage facilities took priority.
Haiti, 2010
1. 7.0Mw
  1. Earthquake occurred at 16:53 local time on 1st January
    1. 59 aftershocks of magnitude 4.5 or greater recorded by USGS
      1. 16 over magnitude 5.0,highest of 6.0Mw
2. 1.3 million displaced persons, 100,000-316,000 dead, 300,000 injured
  1. 97,294 houses destroyed and 188,383 destroyed in the Port au Prince area and southern Haiti
    1. 4,000 schools damaged or destroyed
    2. 60% of government//administrative buildings, 80% of schools in Port au Prince, 60% in south and west departments, destroyed or damaged
    3. 19 million cubic metres of rubble, enough to fill a line of shipping containers from London to Beirut
  2. 3.5 million affected
    1. 1.5 million living in camps at peak, 100,000 at critical risk from storms or flooding
  3. 25% of civil servants killed
  4. Response greatly relianton international help
    1. International agencies, countries and NGOs funded relief efforts, sent equipment and personnel
    2. 3.6bn USD pledged by the international community following the quake
      1. 1 year on, there was still over 1bn in requirements for various projects
      2. 4 years on, the UN estimates 817,000 Haitians still in need of aid.
        Poor living conditions, and risk of eviction from remaining 106 camps
        Food insecurity, malnutrition and cholera still major issues
        Some progress made: 89% have left camps, cholera dropped by 50%, and ability of local authorities to respond has improved according to Oxfam.
3. Haiti remarkably vulnerable to any hazard event
  1. Ranked 145/169 in HDI. 70% of the population living on <2USD/day
    1. 86% in Port au Prince living in slum conditions. Densely packed, poorly built concrete constructions
      1. 50% with no access to latrines, 66% no access to tap water
      2. Cholera outbreak in October 2010 caused massive challenges to aid response
  2. No central financial control of ministries
    1. 30% absenteeism in civil service
Nyiragongo, 2002
1. VEI: 1
  1. Intermittent eruptions and periods of activity since 1928
  2. 13 days prior to eruption, tremors were felt at Rusayo village, 5km south of Nyiragongo
    1. 10 days prior to eruption, the GVO and CRSN forecast the potential for an eruption, and vulnerability of the cities of Goma and Sake to lava flows
    2. Tremors felt in the Goma and Gesenyi areas for a further 3 months, causing collapse of several buildings
  3. Main eruption began at 08:35 local time on January 17th, 2002
    1. Large amounts of lava emitted from 3 spatter cones, creating very fluid lava
      1. Large amounts of CO2 emitted, contributing to many fatalities
      2. Exceptionally long fissures reaching the outskirts of Goma created 3 lava trails
      3. Lava reached 2m deep in downtown Goma
2. 400,000 evacuated, 147 deaths, 400 injuries
  1. Estimated 4,500 buildings in Goma (40%) collapsed and/or were buried by lava
    1. 2 of 4 hospitals, 3 of 11 health centres, 80 out of 150 pharmacies buried
    2. 80% of airstrip at Goma airport covered
    3. 90% of Goma's business district buried. This was one of the only functioning business regions in the eastern DRC.
  2. Only 2 seismographs on site and 1 large eruption in 1977 to refer to.
    1. Weeks before eruption, volcanologists could only tell authorities the volcano was restless
      1. False alarm in 1994 magnified the issue
      2. Conclusive data could have kick started authorities.
    2. 4 new seismometers donated from France and USA to prevent future disasters.
Pinatubo, 1991
1. VEI: 6.0 (2nd largest in 20th century)
  1. Several quakes preceding the eruption, and powerful steam explosions
    1. Through April, May and June 1991, 1000s tonnes of SO2 emited
  2. Main explosion on June 15th 1991.
    1. Ash cloud rose to 35km, spread by a coincidental typhoon
      1. Reduced global temperatures 05-0.6 celcius
    2. Surrounding land blanketed by ash and pumice
      1. A blanket of at least 1cm covered the entire island of Luzon
    3. Pyroclastic flows created debris as deep as 200m
  3. Weak explosions continued until September 1991
2. 200,000 evacuated, 450 killed, 4 injured
  1. 4,979 homes destroyed and 70,257 damaged, mainly as a result of lahars.
    1. Structures of the 2 largest US military bases severely damaged by the weight of ash fall.
  2. A warning from the USGS and PHIVOLCS saved an estimated 5,000 lives and $250 million in property damage
  3. Commercial aircraft warned of ash cloud, but as much as $100 million was sustained in damage by those planes flying too close
  4. Estimated cost: $500 million
Mt Etna, 2002
1. Max VEI recorded: 3
  1. Current activity consists of continuos summit degassing, explosive Stombolian eruptions, frequent basaltic lava flows
  2. Major eruptions between 26th October-28th January 2003
  3. Series of earthquakes up to 4.3 on the Richter scale during November 2002.
    1. Clouds of ash and gas emitted. Travelled as far south as Libya, and Kefalonia, Greece
    2. Lava flows threatened Rifugio Sapienze between 20th and 21st November.
2. 1,000 evacuated, 32 injured, 0 killed
  1. $8 million in damage
    1. 300 businesses directly affected
  2. Catania airport closed for 4 days
  3. Skiing season unable to begin. Sloped engulfed by lava
    1. 1 restaurant, 3 chair lifts and 100s of acres of forest destroyed.
  4. State of emergency declared
    1. Army used bulldozers to break tarmac and build barriers around populated areas
      1. Efforts made to divert lava away from scientific station at foot of Etna
      2. Channels dug to divert lava away from Linguaglossa
    2. Ship equipped with medical clinic harbored off Catania as a precaution
    3. Tax breaks given to help locals through crisis
Indian Ocean, 2004
1. Tsunami generated by 9.1Mw quake
  1. 00:58 GMT (07:58 Thailand time)
  2. Max wave height: 50.9m
  3. 18 countries affected across the Indian Ocean region
2. 226,898 killed, over 500,000 injured
  1. Up to 5 million lost homes, or access to food and water
  2. Spread of cholera, dysentery and diptheria due to contaminated water and tropical climate
  3. Loss of coastal fisheries and tourism industries
  4. Largenumber of orphans
  5. Over 7bn USD donated in aid
    1. Help with damage to infrastructure, shortages of food and water
    2. More than 160 aid agencies and the UN began to operate in Indonesia to provide food, shelter and schooling
    3. 1 year on, 60,000 still living in tents
  6. Providing sanitation and clean drinking water primary goals
  7. No warning system in the Indian Ocean prior to disater. Most were unaware of the Tsunami
    1. Lack of communications networks to convey any warnings
      1. Earthquake picked up by Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii, but despite calls, the message was not transferered
    2. Local populations unaware of the signs of an impending tsunami
      1. 10 yr old British girl credited with saving over 100 lives after recognisingsigns and telling people to get off the beach
    3. Tsunami warning system approved by the UN in January 2005, and funded internationally
      1. Cost: $20 million
      2. First buoy laid in the Indian Ocean in late 2006, funded by USA. System now fully operational
Tohoku, 2011
1. Tsunami generated by 9.0 Mw quake
  1. Event recorded at 14:46 local time on 11th March
  2. Several foreshocks beginning March 9th with a 7.2 Mw quake, 40km from March 11th epicentre.
  3. Epicentre located in the Pacific Ocean, near Honshu, East Japan
2. 130,927 displaced persons, 15,550 deaths, 5,344 missing, 5,314 injured
  1. 332,395 buildings, 2,125 roads, 56 bridges, 26 railways destroyed or damaged
    1. Fukushima Daichi plant suffered severe damage, leading to the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, 1986
      1. 20km exclusion zone enforced, evacuating 150,000
      2. Massive opposition to nuclear power resulted. By Jan 2012, 90% of nuclear reactors were offline
  2. Economic loss: 309bn USD
  3. Pacific warning system gave little time to react due to proximityof epicentre to land
    1. Warnings given to 50 countreis
      1. Damage minimal outside of Japan.
      2. Hawaii had 5 hrs warning.
      3. Coastguard on hand in California as a precaution
    2. Tsunami defences overwhelmed by size of wave
  4. Relief provided by Japanese government, emergency services and military
    1. $87 million donated in aid within 7 days from around the globe
      1. Governments sent medical staff, SAR teams, food, equipment and military help
        US operation "Tomodachi" involved navy, air force and 2 urban SAR teams
Other Examples
1. Mt Kelud, Indonesia, Feb 2014: 3 die from roof collapse after ash fall
2. Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, November 1985: Volcanic eruption predicted, and evacuation advice given by seismologists and NGOs, but the message wasnot effectively communicated
  1. Most caught unaware: 23,000 killed
  2. Total cost: $7.7bn, 20% of Colombian GDP at the time
3. Vesuvius, Italy: Plans drawn up in 1995 to evacuate 600,000 in the region in the event of a volcanic eruption
  1. Avoiding panic is key
  2. Seawater used to cool lava upon eruption of Eldfell, Iceland, 1973
4. Ash clouds: BA009 almost creashed on 24th June 1982 following the eruption of Mt Galunggung, Indonesia
  1. European airspace closed as a precaution for 8 days in 2010 after the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland
5. Tangshan earthquake, China, 1976: 80% of those buried by rubble were rescued because they knew to get under tables and chairs

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