Election fortunes 1964-79

1964
1. Scandals
  1. Profumo Affair
    1. March 1963 John Profumo, Minister for War hits the headlines. He’s been having sex with Christine Keeler, a prostitute to clients such as members of the Soviet Embassy. In the House of Commons, Profumo denies any involvement with her but he was forces to resign
    2. Macmillan is criticised for believing Profumo’s first denial.
  2. Vassall Affair
    1. The Govt held an official investigation into the case of John Vassall, a civil servant in the admiralty who was caught spying for the Soviet Union in 1962. He was Homosexual and was being black mail by the KGB because they had photograph's of him in compressing with men in Moscow
  3. Argyll Divorce Case
    1. A high profile divorce case with the Duke of Argyll sued his wife Margaret for divorce in 1963 on the grounds of adultery.
    2. The duchess had sex with allegedly 88 men, and on a occasion having group sex – this was said to include 2 Govt ministers, including one who appeared in a compromising photo used as evidence in court.
  4. Philby Affair
    1. January 1963, Kim Philby, a senior official in the Foreign Office is exposed as having passed information to the USSR for decades including recruiting agents and running a spy network.
    2. Philby fled to Moscow and stayed there until his death in 1988
2. Policy Problems
  1. Unemployment
    1. Spickd in 1963-878,000
      1. Questioned asked about full employment
  2. EEC Failure
    1. De gaulle veto there entry because he feared the "special relationship", the Having the cake and eating it ( Keeping the Commonwealth), cheap agriculture and britain dominating the EEC
3. The result
  1. Labour squeaked home with a majority of 4
  2. Tories lost 60 seats but they were only 0.1% behind Labour
  3. A surge in votes for the Liberals damaged the Tories even though it produced only 9 Liberal MPs
1966
1. When the government won a by-election in Hull January 1966, the opportunity was to good to miss. A general election was called for 31 March
2. The tories had changed their leader, replacing Alec Douglas-Home with Edward Heath, but Heath appeared stiff and ill at ease and was regularly outshone in the Commons by wilson
3. There might be trouable ahead, but there were strong arguments for going to the country and trying to get an effective majority while things looked promising
4. The result
  1. Labour gained 48% of vote and broke out of its traditional strongholds in Wales and the industrial North to take cathedral and university cities
  2. The Liberal vote fell, but the workings of the first-past-the-post voting system gave then an increase in seats from 9 to 12
  3. Wilson had triumphed and could now form his "real" cabinet and transform the country
1970
1. The result
  1. There was impulsive decision and voting (partly due to the Hot weather) which could have causted the Conservative victory and the bad trade figurines in the last week of the GE
  2. Conservative - 13,145,123 votes, 330 seats won and 46.4% of the votes
  3. Labour - 12,208,758 votes, 228 seats won and 43.1% of the votes
  4. Conservatives won with an overall majority of 31. The election was the first election where people aged 18 to 20 could vote as well following the representation of the people act in 1969
2. Economy
  1. Exports were down by £45 million on the previous month
3. Labour poll
  1. The poll had Labour 2.5% to 12.4% a head
1974 - Febuary
1. In February, Heath decided to fight and win a general election on the theme "who governs Britain?"
  1. Both the Labour and Tories were less than exciting and many felt that the small Liberal Party was the most interesting thing on offer
  2. Enoch Powell probably damaged Heath's chances by leaving the Tories and standing as a Unionist in NI. He urged the voters in Britain to vote Labour as the best option for getting out of Europe
2. The result
  1. A hung parliament, perhaps the very worst of result.
    1. Harold Wilson was called to the palace to become PM for a second stint
    2. Heath sought a deal with Jeremy Thorpe, the Liberal Leader, but in the end faield to get one.
    3. Labour, with a similar share of popular vote got 301 MPs
    4. The Tories,with 38%, gained 297 MPs
    5. The Liberals with 14% got 14 MPs
1974 - October
1. Wilson stuck it out until October 1974 and then fought a quiet campaign on the grounds that Labour was more likely than the Tory's
2. Talk of a "social contract"- various concessions in welfare and work legislation, responsible wage demands
3. The result
  1. Labour's share of the popular vote increased and there seats rose from 301 to 319
  2. There were 13 Liberals
  3. 11 Scottish Nationals
  4. 3 Welsh Nationals
  5. 1 SDLP - NI Nationals
  6. Working Labour majority - smaller party more likely to vote with Labour
1979
1. Crisis? What Crisis?
  1. Callaghan had returned from an economic summit. He was ask about the mounting chaos. He replyed "I don't think that other people in the world share the view that there is mounting chaos " this was at the same week that NUPE and NALGO called for 24 hour general strike - 1.5 million people went on strike on 22 January 1979
2. Long term
  1. Commitment to full-employment means that jobs will be protect at all cost - this fuels inflation as there is more demand - this stimulate further wages icreases thus increasing inflation - causing the cycle to happen again.
  2. Lack of appetite union reform - social contract -working with the union not against them
3. Political misjudgment
  1. Callangham's chose not to call an election in 1978
    1. Privet party poll suggest that the Labour lead was not strong
    2. It turned out to be a mistake not to call an election
4. Conservative campaigning
  1. The Tories played on the "winter of discontent" and unemployment with an effective election poster showing a long queue of the unemployment with the caption "Labour isn't working". Unemployment was 1.3 million
5. The Labour party low morale
  1. By March Jim was exhausted and dispirited.
    1. This lead to the Attlee Government to defeat in 1951
6. The result
  1. Labour share of the popular vote fell to 37%
  2. The conservatives gained 43.9%
  3. If Thatchers victory with a majority of 44 marked a sea-change, then it was a change largely limited to England, and the southern half of England at that

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Election fortunes 1964-79

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