Adavanced Environmental Assessment

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Karteikarten zum lernen von "Advanced Environmental Assessments" und "Implementations"
Michael Demarmels
Fichas por Michael Demarmels, actualizado hace más de 1 año
Michael Demarmels
Creado por Michael Demarmels hace casi 8 años
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What do we need uncertainty information for? - Often not "one" trustworthy value - Various choices are made - Results should always be communicated along with measure of confidence
What uncertainty sources are there? - Parameter uncertainty - Model uncertainty
What sources of variability are there? - Spatial variability - Temporal variability - Variability between objects/sources
What techniques are used for uncertainty assessment? - Boundary Analysis - Monte Carlo simulation
What data is needed for a Boundary Analysis? Worst-, and Best-Case values for all uncertain parameters
What's the procedure in a Boundary Analysis? Calculate a Best-, and a Worst-Case resut by using all Best-, and all Worst-Case values
What's the procedure for a Monte Carlo uncertainty assessment? Repeatedly calculate the impacts with a random sampling strategy.
What's the formula for the LCA-Calculation with a Monte Carlo Simulation? h = C*B*A^(-1)*f h: Impact Score C: Characterisation factor matrix B: Bioshpere matrix A: Technosphere raw matrix f: Final demand vector
What Probability Density Functions are available for the distribution of the input-parameters? - Uniform distribution - Normal distribution - Lognormal distribution
Which distribution is mostly used in LCA? Why? - The lognormal distribution - Because it avoids negative values
Which tools are available for estimating the parameters of a log-normal distribution? When are they used? - If there is enough data available: > Calculate geometeric mean and standard derivation - If only typical value and minimum/maximum value is available: > Typical value = Geometric mean > Maximum and minimum value are used to calculate the geometric standard deviation - If only one value available: Pedigree Matrix
What are the advantages of a Monte Carlo uncertainty assessment? - Model-independent
What sensitivity analyses are available? - One-at-a-time sensitivity analysis - Scenario analysis - Comprehensive sensitivity analysis
Advantages and disadvantages of one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis? Advantages: - Simple and easy to perform Disadvantages: - Ignores interactions - Often not comprehsible
How is a comprehensive sensitivity analysis conducte? 1. Calculate the impacts for 2 or more emissions 2. Rank the contributions and the overall impacts 3. Calculate the differences in rank of the emissions and of the overall impacts 4. For each emission i, calculate the rank order correlation coefficient ri,j for the impact category j 5. Calculate the contribution to variance (CTVi,j)
How to conduct the uncertainty modelling? 1. Specify a rough uncertainty distribution 2. Conduct a first sensitvity analysis 3. If the input parameters matter: specify a more detailed uncertainty distribution 4. Conduct a second sensitivity analysis 5. Conduct a monte carlo simulation
Draw the conceptual model of an Input Output table!
Draw an example of an environmentally extended Import Output table!
What's the matrix with the emissions/ressource use etc. called? What other informations could it contain? - This is called a satellite matrix - It could also contain informations about employment energy, emissions...
What's the application of an environmental extended Input Output table called? In comparison to this, what is the "classical" LCA called? - Input-Output-LCA (IOLCA) - Product LCA (pLCA)
What are the main differences in the results of a pLCA and a IOLCA? - IOLCA takes untypical stuff like hairdressers into account - pLCA always a bit lower than IOLCA (in average less than 10% difference) - For rather "untypical" products of a sector (e.g. a wafer) the results are way higher with IOLCA than with pLCA - For a rather "typical" product like US electricity the results are more similar
Which two perspectives can be applied for the the IOLCA on a national level? - Production perspective: > Including env. impacts caused by exported goods > Excluding env. impacts caused by imported goods - Consumption perspective: > Excluding env. impacts caused by exported goods > Including env. impacts caused by imported goods
How to do an IOLCA with a consumption perspective? 1. Quantify interrelation between economic sectors 2. Allocate national annual emissions and resource consumption to economic sectors 3. Quantify environmental impacts of imports 4. Attribute imports to economic sectors 5. Update the environmentally extended IO database
What's the name of one multiregional IO table? - The EXIOBASE database
Draw the structure of the EXIOBASE multiregional IO table?
What's the summary of the results from various international IOLCAs? - China exports a lot of its emissions expecially to Europe and the US - Rich countries emit more - Switzerland seems to export more emissions than it imports
When do allocation problems occur? - At processes delivering more than one product, e.g. refineries, cows - When materials and energy are recycle, e.g. with the options for materials recycling, waste incineration or energy recovery
How is allocation in multioutput processes done according to to ISO 14040/44? 3 allocations possible. They are chosen with the following preference (if possible, choose one with a lower number): 1. Avoid allocaion by: - Increased level of detail - Expanding the system 2. Allocation according to physical relationships 3. Allocation according to other relationships
Draw the basic outline for the allocation problem with 2 products with and without recycling
What's the distinction between an open-loop and a closed-loop allocation? Open loop: Use of recycled materials in other products Closed loop: Use of recycled materials in identical product
What types of sustainability do exist? - Week sustainability - Stron sustainability
What types for recycling allocation do exist? - End of Life (EOL) / Avoided burden - Recyled content (RC) / Cut-off - Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) - EN 15804 on Environmental Product Declarations
How does the End of Life (EOL)/Avoided burden allocation work? - All material is considered virgin material - You get a credit when you recycle a material - Recyling is allocated to product 1
What are the interpretations of the EOL/Avoided burden allocation? - Future generations grant an "environmental loan" in exchange to concentrated materials - In line with the weak sustainability conept
Pros and Cons of EOL/Avoided burden? Pros: - Supported by the metal industry - Leads to efficient recycling market Cons: - Actual env. impacts occuring today just postponed - Maybe impacts will be forgotten (sunk impacts)
How does the Recycled Content (RC)/Cut-off allocation work? - First use of primary materials bears environemantal impacts, no credits granted - Material is distinguished between virgin and recycled material - Recying allocated to material 2
What are the interpretations of the RC/Cut-off allocation? - All emissions caused today are booked today - In line with strong sustainability concept - Precautionary: No sunken costs
Pros/Cons of RC/Cut-off? Pros: - Precautionary principle Cons: - Scrap availability may be reduced: Therefore market distortions possible - Not suported by the metal industry
How does the Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) allocation work? (No formula) - End of life recyling - 50:50 - allocation of primary production and recycling efforts - 100% - allocation for electricity and heat recovery
How does the Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) allocation work? (Formula) Emissions= VIRGin + RECin + RECout + ERout + DISPout = (1-R1/2) * Ev + R1/2 * Erecycling + R2/2 * (Erecyling,EOL - Ev* * Qs/Qp) + ERout + (1-R2/2-R3) * ED - R1/2 * ED* R1: Fraction of material used for product 1 that was recyled before R2: Fraction of material that has been used for product 1 that was recyled afterwards EV: Impacts for production of vergin material for product 1 EV*: Impacts for production of vergin material for product 2 Erecycling: Impacts for recycling with material for product 1 Erecycling,EOL: Impacts for recycling with material for product 2 ERout: Impacts and Ressources from energy production of incinerated materials after usage of product 1 ED: Emissions caused by the disposal of product 1 ED*: Emissions caused by the disposal of the material produc 1 is made of
How does the EN15804 on Environmental Product Declarations work? (Formula) - Behaves the same as the RC-approach but loads and benefits can voluntarily be reported as well - Loads: (R2-R1) * Erecycling,EOL Benefits: -(R2-R1) * Ev* Erecycling,EOL: Impacts for recycling with material for product 2 EV*: Impacts for production of vergin material for product 2
Why are env. decisions difficult? - Large number of alternatives - Potentially conflicting objectives - Large uncertainty - Interdisciplinary nature of problems - Many stakeholders involved
What is a good decision? - Careful consideration of objectives - Used of scientific information - Participatory and transparent - etc.
What is the Goal of decision analysis? - Support the decision process to make better decisions
What are the seven steps of the multi-criteria decision analysis? 1. Define decision problem, framing. Cary out stakeholder analysis 2. Identify objectives and attributes. Construct objects hierarchy (e.g. High Flexibility) 3. Identify alternatives (e.g. central) 4. Predict outcome of each alternative 5. Elicit and quantify stakeholder preferences for outcome 5.1. Bring everything to a scale between 0 and 1 5.2. Elicit weigths with SWING 5.3. Weight the values with the weights 6. Integrate steps 4 & 5 , rank alternatives. Analyze results, carry out sensitivity analysis 7. Discuss results with stakeholders. Find consensus alternatives
What are the different approaches for life cycle inventory models? - Attribution - Decisional - Consequential
When should the attributional approach be used? - For small individual consumer decisions - Relative share < 0.1% - Mostly just used for reporting
When should the decisonal approach be used? - For corporate strategic planning - Relative share between 0.1% and 1%
When should the consequential approach be used? - For national and international policy monitoring - Relative share > 1 %
How to conduct a attributional allocation in a LCA? What would be a typical question? Typical question would be: What are he env. impacts of a litre of Max Havelaar Orange juice in Switzerland in 2012 1. Identifly all economic actors that contributed to the MH-supply 2. Collect informations for all the actors, e.g. raw materials and working materials used 3. Also search for data about their release of of pollutants 4. Also search for data about their yearly production 5. Calculate the impacts in a classical manner
How to conduct a consequential allocation in a LCA? What would be a typical question? Typical Question: What would happen if the demand for beef is increasing? 1. Define the system > E.g. include the leather production etc. 2. Search for price elasticities 3. Identify marginal technologies
How are the supply and demand price elasticities defined? - Supply: ηS = (ΔS/S)/(ΔP/P) - Demand ηD = (ΔD/D)/(ΔP/P)
What simplifications for price elasticities can be made? 1st-line of simplification: - E.g. for recylcling: Only a competition of recycled material of the same type 2nd-line of simplification: - ηD = 0 Uneffected demand - ηD = ηS = Supply and demand equally afffected - ηS Supply unaffected
Draw the typical structure of a LCA!
What are the typical LCI-categories? - Emissions (to air, water and soil) - Resource extraxtion
What are the typical LCIA-categories? - Ozone depletion - Climat change - Photochemical ozone creation - Particulate matter health impacts - Human toxic effects - Ionizing effects - Eutrophication - Acidification - Land impacts - Water impacts - Resource depletion - Noise - Seabed Level
What are typical damage categories? - Human Health - Ecosystem quality - Natural resources - Ecosystem services - Soci-economic assets - Cultural heritage - Natural heritage
What is a DALY? Total Disability Adjusted Life Years per kg of substance emitted
How can ecosystem quality be assessed, resp. what is the name of the parameter used? Potentially disappeared fraction of species (PDF)
What tool is used to assess resource management? Mass Flow Analysis
How should the LCI of climate change be assessed? And how should the LCIA be assessed? - Because the effect is regionally specific and should be modeled as such: Regionalised LCIA - Because localisation of the emission does not matter: No regionalised LCI
How are land used assessments conducted? - Based on a Species-Area Relationships (SAR) - S = c*A^(z) - Insular SAR: Slost = Sorig*(1-(Anew/Aorig)^z)
What are the differences between Risk assessment and LCA? - LCA only for relative comparison - Risk assessment has the PNEC
How is ecotoxicity assessed? - Risk assessment - Concentraion addition - Respone addition - Usetox
How are concentraion additions conducted? When is it performed? - For n compound with concentrations ci: Σci/ECx,i = 1 > If actual effect is > 50 %: Synergism > If actual effect is < 50 %: Antagonism - It's performed for equitoxic mixtures
What is the definition of a response addition? When is it performed? - E(mix) = E(c1,c2) = E(c1) + E(c2) - E(c1) * E(C2) - It's performed for compounds reacting with different modes of actions
What is Usetox? - A model to assess the concentrations in the three phases: Water, Air and Lipid
Why regionalisation in LCA? - Impacts may differ depending on origin of the site - Regionalisation can reduce uncertainties due to spatial variabilities
What is the classical computational structure of a LCA? h = diag(C) * B * (I-A)^(-1) * f h: Impacts C: Characterisation vector B: Biosphere matrix A: Technosphere matrix f: Demand vector
What is the computational structure of a spatial LCA? h = (M * G * R)^(T) o B * ( I-A)^(-1) * diag(f) o: Hadamard product R: Characterisation matrix M: Inventory mapping matrix G: Geographix transform matrix
Draw an example for the Geographic transform matrix G
Draw an example for the Inventory mapping matrix M
Draw an example for the characterisation matrix R
What are some applications of spatial LCAs? - Acidification surveys - Land occupation from agriculture and forestry - Impacts of power plants
What are the scientific requirements for a LCA? - ISO 14044 - "...shall be transparent and ... allow the reader to comprehend the LCA" - "... confidential information may not be included in the 3rd-party report"
What are some problems with cradle to gate data? - Descriptive information seldom available - Seldom sufficient to reproduce the LCI - No independent quality check/review - Strong dependency on data provider
What are some problems with gate to gate data? - Clients and competitors may calculate production costs and margins - If emissions particularly low: Administration may lower the legal limit - If emissions particularly high: Likely to get into legal focus
Why transparency? - Increases credibility - Enables data quality checks - Does not influence data quality - Decreases dependency on data owner - Challanges ethical responsiblity
What are some different levels of confidentiality? - Only publish cumulative data - Horizontal aggregation - Vertical aggregation - No information on process at all
What does a critical review has to check? - Methods consistent with ISO-standards - Methods scientifically valid - Data used are appropriate and reasonable - Interpretations reflect limitations identified - Study report transparent and consistend
Is a critical reviews mandatory or optional? - In general: Optional - Exception: When used for comperative assertion intended to be disclosed to the public
Who does a LCA-review? - Independent expert (internal or external) - Panel of interested parties (mandatory if intended to be a comperative assertion disclosed to the public)
Where can the details on the review-process be found? ISO/TS 14071
Challanges on external reviewers? - Who pays them? - Hidden agenda of reviewer? > Measures needed to ensure confientiality
What's the motivation for studying indoor exposure? - Pollutant concentrations often higher than outdoors - Most of the time spent indoors - In many companies: "Environment, Health and Safety" is one organisational unit - Avoide problem shifting
What are the determinants of exposure and of health risks? - Concentration - Number of people exposed and their exposure time - Toxicity of pollutant
What are the four important factors for the final concentrations? - Emission rate - Ventilation rate, mixing, distance to source - Room dimensions - Sinks
How can the emission rates be quantified? - Measurements - Generation rate models - Back-calculation from concentration measurements
How is the ventilation rate expressed and what are typical values? k = "Number of air exchanges per hour" k = 1 with ventilation k = 3-20 without ventilation
What are the models for the concentrations? In ascending order of accuracy: 1. Zero-Ventilation model 2. One-Box model 3. Multiple-Zone-Model 4. Eddy-diffusion model 5. CFD-model
Which concentration models for which situation? For small workplaces: 1-box-model If workers mainly in near-field: 2-zone or Eddy-diffusion
How is the human toxicity potential defined? HTP = ΣCF * E E: Emissions CF: Characterisation factor
How is the characterisation factor defined? CF = iF * EFx iF: Intake Factor EFx: Effect factor
How is the intake factor defined? iF = IR / (V * k) * N IR: Inhalation rate V: Room volume k: Air exchange rate N: Numer of people affected
How is the risk characterisation defined? Predicted concentration/Human Limit Value * Number of people
How is the risk quotient defined? RQ = PEC/PNEC PEC: Predicted Env. conc PNEC: Predicted No-Effect Concentration PNEC = NOEC * SF NOEC: No observed effect concentration
How is the consumer-risk differentiated? Chronic and acute intake
What is the regulatory procedure for allowing a new pesticide? 1. Dosier (M->A) 2. Evaluation (A->M) 3. Further monitoring (M->A) 4. Approval/Mitigation (A->M) M: Manufacturer A: Authorities
What is meant by a tired approach? The complexity of the surveys of a risk assessment study is increasing in the following order: Computer-, -> Lab-, -> Field- Assessments
How is the metabolism in a plant assessed? With 14C-Tests
What also has to be assessed when it comes to environmental concentrations? The respective spatial situation, eg. water with pesticide is flowing into a ditch/stream/pond.
What is optimisation? "An art, process or methodology of making something ... as fully perfect ... as possible"
What is the matrix-based LCI model? A * s = f A: Technology matrix s: Scaling vector f: Final demand vector
When can a system be optimised? When the technology matrix has more columns than rows, e.g. more processes than products.
Whats the key difference between standard LCA and LP-LCA? - Standard-LCA: Each process has a unique product or service as output - LP-LCA: Multiple processes compete for one product
How does the simplex-algorithm work? 1. Identify basic feasible solution 2. If objective value can be improved when walking along an edge: Do it If not: Stop, current solution is optimal 3. Derive new basic and solution and go back to step 2
What is a pareto-optimal solution? Solution cannot be improved for one objective without making another objective worse.
Draw the fuzzy LP formulation
What are the main characteristics of LCA? - Decision support tool - Life cycle based - Not yet mandatory - Broad scope of env. impacts - Not verifiable by means of experiment - Internationally standardised
When does subjectivity occur? - Always, but mostly on the goals and scope decisions
Decisions related to goal and scope? - Def. of functional unit - System boundary - Selection of env. impacts - Selection of reference flow - Selection of alternatives
What is the rebound effect? People e.g. travel further when they are moving faster
How is a subjectivity in the inventory analysis expressed? - Choice of modelling approach (attributional vs. consequential) - Choice of allocation principle (cut-off vs. avoided burdens)
What subjectivity exists in the impact assessment? - Preference of safeguard objectives - Time preference - Preference of place - Risk perception - Perception of uncertainty
Ways to deal with subjectivity? - Cultural theory and perspectives, e.g. ReCiPe 2008 - Apply clearly defined concepts (strong/weak sustainability) - Sensitivity analysis
What are the dimensions to define/develop a sustainability strategy for an organisation? - Ecological Sust. - Economic Sust. - Social Sustt.
Who can/should define which issues are relevant for a sustainability strategy of an organisation? - The top managment should define targets & Programs - Line Managers do the same for their lines - Sustainability specialists are hiearachically close to the top management (administrative department)
Reasons for an organisation to develop sustainability oriented management? - Personal ethical attitude - Image - Brand assurance - Market profile - Innovation in products and services - Short-, and mid-term cost savings - Staff activation and motivation
Show and explain the Deming-Circle? Plan: Analyse situation, organise goals, Targets, Measures Do: Implement Check: Check & Report Act/Adept: Improve
What is a "process"? What elements are necessary to describe it? Process: - Input - Activities - Output To describe it: - Describe these elements - Define a name for it - Define a function for it - Define a responsible position and measures
List ISO-, and other standards for company sustainability and the issues that they cover! Important ones are marked with a * - ISO 14031: Environmental Performance Evaluation - * ISO 14064: Calculating the GHG emissions of an organisation - ISO 14072: LCA for organisations - * ISO 14001: Environmental Management System (EMS) + ISO 14004: Guidelines to EMS - ISO 14050 Energy MGMT system - ISO 14040/44: Product LCA - ISO 14020ff: Env. Labelling - SA 8000: Social Accountability - ISO 26000: Guidance on sustainable MGMT - ISO 9001: Management systems for sustainable management
Discuss Life Cycle Management thinking, e.g. for a house! - Can save a lot of money when the house would lead to low costs in the beginning but higher in the long run when not built efficiently
What is a stakeholder? Develop a stakeholder list for an organisation! Definition: Person which has an interest in the existance of an organisation or a process. List: - Banks - Clients - General public - Authorities - NGOs
Draw the Environmental Management System (EMS)!
To what ISO-norm is the EMS belonging? ISO 14001
How can environmental data be used in a sustainability management or in an EMS? - In every process - An emphasis is put on the company ecobalance
How should targets be? "SMART": - Specific - Measurable - Achievable - Relevant - Time-specific
What should be considered when organising sustainability responsibilty in a company? 1. Form a working group on environmental or sustainability issues 2. Make somebody responsible 3. Know your stakeholders 4. Know your compliance obligation 5. Develop the MGMT system 6. Chose the MGMT system
How is a MGMT system developed? - Formulate a vision and a policy - Define goals, attribute responsibility and competences - Define metrices - Large companies: Full EMS Small companies: Simplified EMS
List some criteria which allow to identify relevant env. aspects of an organisation! - Legal - Cost - Hazards - Ecobalance - Stakeholder "Expextancies" - Cultural Influence - Improvement potential
What is Life Cyle Costing? How can it be split? - The life cycle costing wants to know the full costs of a product in all three sustainability areas, e.g. economic, environmental and social sustainability - It can be split into these 3 LCCs: > Business Life Cycle Costing (LCC): Company Costs + EOL costs > Environmental LCC > Full LCC
What is the GRI reporting standard? - Tool for reporting social sustainability performance of a company - It consists e.g. of most senior managers statement on sustainability - It is becoming more and more used
What is the Global Compact? - Initiated by the UN - Consists of 10 bullet points, e.g. support and respect, labour, environment, anti-corruption - Is more a declaration than anything else
What is the problem of the GDP as a measure of wealth/well-being? - Only accounts for services which can be paid - No accountance for non-contractual work - The conservation of the nature doesn't increase the GDP - Problems arising may increase the GDP but do not increase the wellbein
Pro and cons of environmental taxes? Pro: - Increase incentive to save energy - Increase market opportunities for efficient technologies - Increase overall energy efficiency - Create a small positive effect on the labor market - Liberty of choice remains Con: - May hinder the export-industry - May hurt the poor because regressive
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